000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2258 UTC Thu Apr 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 07N78W to 04N95W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 06N130W. Another segment reaches from 05N135W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 82W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 08N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure near 37N133W through the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer passes indicated gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California and light SW winds across most of the Gulf of California. The exception was a small area of 15 to 20 kt SW winds near a gap area along the Baja California peninsula close to 30N. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes showed seas of 8 ft or greater well off the coast north of Punta Eugenia. This is primarily NW swell in the area. Farther south, light W to NW persist, with seas 4 to 6 ft consisting of components of NW and SW swell. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted anywhere in Mexican offshore waters at this time. For the forecast, the northerly swell to 8 ft will persist off Baja California Norte into Sat. Otherwise the weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle breezes into Sat, before the pattern changes. Low pressure north of the area will deepen, allowing fresh to strong SW winds across the Gulf of California late Sat into Sun. This will be ahead of a cold front expected to move into the area early next week. Farther south, no significant gap wind event is anticipated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An upper level low is centered southwest of Guatemala near 12N96W. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of this low is supporting clusters of moderate showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Costa Rica and western Panama, near Cocos Island. Some of this is reaching the coastal waters, between David, Panama and Golfito, Costa Rica. Convergent drainage flow was causing a few thunderstorms near the Gulf of Fonseca and off El Salvador overnight, but this has diminished already. Elsewhere rather quiet conditions are observed over the Central American and equatorial waters. These conditions are expected to change little through Sat night. Early next week, a western Caribbean high pressure ridge is forecast to build southward, with the resultant gradient leading to fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Long-period southwest swell should reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1030 mb high pressure is centered well north of the area near 37N133W. Farther south, a surface trough is noted along the ITCZ near 130W. Recent scatterometer data and TOGA-TAO buoy data showed fresh to occasionally strong NW winds northwest of the trough to about 20N. Concurrent altimeter data indicated seas of 7 to 9 ft in this area. Scattered moderate convection is active near the ITCZ and close to the surface trough. The trade wind flow will increase Fri into Sat as the high pressure north of the area builds. Seas will build accordingly in the area of fresh to strong trades, possibly reaching 8 to 11 ft Sat into Sun. Looking ahead to early next week, a frontal boundary will move through the northeast Pacific toward California, weakening and displacing the high pressure. This will allow trade winds and associated seas to diminish over the tropical waters Mon into Tue. Fresh trade winds can be expected toward mid week as the high builds. $$ Christensen