000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020324 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 02 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from the Colombia/Panama border at 08N78W to 05N86W to 05N94W, where scatterometer data from this afternoon indicated the ITCZ axis begins and continues to 06N101W to 06N110W to 06N120W and to 06N128W where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 10N127W to 04N130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 90 nm east of the trough from 06N to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the trough from 05N to 08N, and also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 126W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient between a ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and a trough over northern Mexico will result in gentle to fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja California peninsula through at least Mon night. Long-period northwest swell mixed with south swell will continue to impact the waters north of Punta Eugenia through the upcoming weekend. Peak wave heights should reach to around 10 ft through Fri. By Mon night, a cold front may approach Baja California with increasing southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California ahead of it, possibly reaching strong speeds before diminishing on Tue. Peak wave heights in the northern Gulf of California may reach to around 5 ft on Mon night. With a light pressure gradient expected over Mexico and vicinity waters, no significant gap wind event is anticipated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rather quiet conditions are observed over the Central American and equatorial waters. These conditions are expected to change little through Sat night. On Sun and Mon, a western Caribbean high pressure ridge is forecast to build southward, with the resultant gradient leading to fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Peak wave heights, possibly up to 8 ft, may occur on Sun and Mon. Long-period southwest swell should reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun. Wave model guidance suggests wave heights to reach 7 ft with this set of swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high is located well north of the area at 41N136W, with associated ridging stretching southeastward to 32N132W to 25N125W and to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands. A somewhat weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure at and near the ITCZ is producing only gentle to fresh northeast to east trades across the tropics and sub-tropics, except for west of about 122W where trades are slightly stronger, in the moderate to fresh range mainly due to the enhanced gradient there between surface trough that extends from 10N127W to 04N130W and the aforementioned ridging. This trough is sustained by a an upper- level trough just to its north that is riding along a sub- tropical jet stream branch. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm east of this trough from 05N to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the trough from 05N to 08N. Long-period south swell is combining with northeast wind waves leading to peak wave heights of 9 ft near 10N west of 130W. On Fri and Sat, the high pressure ridge presently in place will be replaced by another area of high pressure that will build southeast and south over the open Pacific waters. This will tighten the pressure gradient enough to increase the trades over the far western waters to mainly strong speeds. Wave heights with these increasing trades are forecast to build slighter higher to 10 or 11 ft. Elsewhere, winds we be in the the light to gentle range through at least Mon night. Long-period southwest swell should reach the equatorial waters this upcoming weekend with peak wave heights of of 8 ft. $$ Aguirre