000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from the Colombia/Panama border at 08N78W to 06N86W to 07N96W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 07N96W to 05N120W to 05N126W, then resumes from 05N129W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm NW of a line from 07N80W to 02N86W, from 03N to 05N between 123W and 129W, and also within 150 nm NW of the ITCZ between 132W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient between a ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and a meandering trough over NW Mexico will produce gentle to moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja California peninsula through Thu. Then, expect moderate to locally fresh northerly winds on Fri as the high pressure rebuilds across the area. Long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia today. Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight through Thu night. This swell event will propagate SE, with seas in the 6 to 9 ft range dominating most of the waters off Baja California on Fri. Gulf of California: Mainly light winds are expected across the Gulf, with the exception of the northern part of the Gulf where gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. By Mon night, a cold front may approach Baja California with increasing SW winds in the northern Gulf ahead of it. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A brief pulse of fresh northerly winds is expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning as high pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front currently moving across the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Papagayo region: Weak surface ridging over W Caribbean should produce moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds across the region during the overnight and early morning hours through the next few days. On Sun, the W Caribbean ridge is anticipated to rebuild and force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Peak seas there may reach up to 8 ft Sun and Mon. Gulf of Panama: Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to moderate to fresh. Long period SW swell should reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Sun, building seas up to 7 or 8 ft through Sun night, gradually decaying early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are forecast through the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters, while a surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ from 11N126W to 05N128W. A moderate N-S pressure gradient between the ridge and trough is supporting mainly fresh NE trades, from roughly N of the ITCZ to 15N W of 125W. Peak seas are around 10 ft in the area of strongest winds. The pressure gradient will not change much through Thu while an area of 8 to 10 ft remains in the same general area under these conditions. On Fri, the high pressure will build SE-S across the waters, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow to at least fresh to strong. A large SW swell event should begin impacting the waters near the Equator between 100W and 130W on Sat. Peak seas should be 8 ft on Sun, gradually decaying early next week. $$ Lewitsky