000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310726
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 UTC Tue Mar 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Climatological pattern of the ITCZ during the months of March and
April typically exhibits dual axes, one N of the Equator and the
other one to the S of the Equator as presently observed. Based 
on this weather pattern, no monsoon trough is currently present E
of 140W. A weak trough is analyzed from 08N82W to 06N95W. The 
ITCZ, in the northern Hemisphere, continues from 06N95W to 06N118W
to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring from 03N to 06N between 129W and 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure of 
1004 mb over N-central Mexico is now supporting moderate to 
fresh NW to N winds west of Baja California based on recent
scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are also 
noted across the central Gulf of California. These winds are
forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less this morning. 

A brief pulse of strong N gap winds should occur over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec on Wed morning as a cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico. Seas will reach up to 6 ft. A long period NW 
swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Wed through 
Fri night. Seas will peak near 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia Wed 
night to Thu night. Seas in the 6 to 9 ft range will dominate
most of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California on Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A N-S pressure gradient over Central America will produce fresh 
to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region this 
morning with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Then, moderate to fresh winds 
are expected mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range
are forecast through Sat night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to 
strong NE to E trades, primarily from 05N to 15N W of 130W, and
from 07N to 20N between 118W and 130W. Recent scatterometer data
confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas are likely peaking 
near 12 or 13 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds. Farther 
east, mainly light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas, in
southerly swell, are noted over the tropical east Pacific. The 
trades should diminish by late today as the high pressure 
weakens. As the high pressure rebuilds on Fri, expect NE trades 
to again reach strong breeze conditions. No significant cross-
equatorial swell is expected through Fri. On Sat, a large SW 
swell event should begin impacting the waters near the equator.

A surface trough is within the ITCZ along 121W from 03N to 10N.
Scattered moderate convection is on the west side of the trough
from 06N to 10N between 121W and 126W. This trough will move 
westward over the next couple of days.

$$ 
GR