000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310226 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 158 UTC Tue Mar 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... During March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is usually present in the southern Hemisphere of the eastern Pacific region. Based on this weather pattern, no monsoon trough is currently present E of 140W. Only a weak trough is analyzed from 08N84W to 05N95W. The ITCZ, in the northern Hemisphere, continues from 05N95W to 05N120W to beyond 03N140W. A second ITCZ is noted S of the Equator. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 06N between 130W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge over the offshore waters of Baja California and a low pressure of 1004 mb over N-central Mexico will support fresh to strong NW to N winds west of Baja California tonight before diminishing tomorrow morning. Seas reach up to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are also expected across the central Gulf of California this evening through early Tue morning with seas of 6 ft. A brief pulse of strong N gap winds should occur over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed morning. Seas will reach up to 6 ft. A long period NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Wed through Fri night. Seas will peak near 10 ft Wed night to Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A N-S pressure gradient over Central America will produce fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight into Tue morning with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters through Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE to E trades, primarily from 06N to 17N W of 120W. Seas are likely peaking near 14 or 15 ft in the area of fresh to strong winds, but no observations were available this evening. These are primarily shorter period waves related to the trade wind flow, but also with a component of longer period S swell. Farther east, light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted over the tropical east Pacific. The trades should diminish by late Tue as the high pressure weakens. As the high rebuilds on Fri, expect NE trades to again reach strong breeze conditions. No significant S hemisphere long-period swell is expected through Fri. On Sat a large SW swell event should begin impacting the waters near the equator. $$ GR