000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 06N90W, where scatterometer data from Sat afternoon indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N101W to 05N117W to 05N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is Within 120 nm north of ITCZ between 128W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A couple of ship observations from just a few hours ago showed fresh northwest to north winds off Baja California Sur. A recent ship reported strong north to northwest at a location of near the entrance to the Gulf, where fresh to strong northwest winds are present. These winds reach southward to the waters between Los Cabos and Mazatlan. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between strengthening high pressure west of the area and low pressure over central Mexico. Latest altimeter satellite data from Sat afternoon revealed wave heights with peak up to 9 ft in the open waters off Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Wave heights, also up to a peak of 9 ft, were shown by this data to be southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur to near 20N. Generally, light to gentle northwest to north winds and slight seas are present farther south. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California today, except for fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the southern Gulf of California before diminishing to fresh speeds this afternoon. The high pressure will continue to strengthen into Mon, supporting fresh to strong northwest winds and building wave heights off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California early in the upcoming week. The high pressure is forecast to weaken through mid-week as it shifts southeastward allowing for winds to diminish. Gentle west to northwest winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec through the period, except for a brief pulse of fresh to strong gap winds early on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the western Caribbean will maintain pulses of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and off Nicaragua through tonight. Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will diminish to gentle to light winds this afternoon. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters through through the middle of the upcoming week. A few showers are occurring over the western and central portions of the Offshore Waters zones of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure ridging covers the area north of about 19N with the anchoring high pressure of 1032 mb centered well to the northwest of the area. The associated tight gradient is allowing for fresh to strong trade winds over much of the area from about 08N to 19N and west of 120W, as were observed in scatterometer satellite data from the overnight hours. Wave heights in this area of trades are in the range of 8-10 ft, except for higher wave heights of 10-13 ft from 09N to 16N and between 128W and 138W. These wave heights are mainly the result of trade wind flow but also due to a mix of primarily northerly swell. Farther east, lighter winds and slight seas are evident in the deep tropics east of 120W. Satellite water vapor imagery depicts a rather sharp upper-level trough that extends from far southeastern Mexico to an elongated upper-level low near 11N99W and to roughly the equator at 110W. Divergent flow aloft east of this feature is supporting isolated weakening showers and thunderstorms near and within 30 nm north of the surface trough described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section between 90W- 95W. Little change is expected in this pattern through early next week. The ridge will weaken into the middle part of the week, allowing for winds to diminish and wave heights to subside west of 120W. $$ Aguirre