617 AXPZ20 KNHC 281603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1602 UTC Sat Mar 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N81W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 95W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations indicate fresh winds off Baja California Sur, with fresh to strong NW winds over the southern portion of the Gulf of California and between Los Cabos and Mazatlan. These winds are within a tight pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and low pressure over northern Mexico. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated 8 to 10 ft seas in the open waters off Baja California through the Revillagigedo Islands. Generally light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted farther south. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja California through Sun, except fresh to strong over the southern Gulf of California into late Sun. The high pressure will build into Mon, supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California early in the week. The high weakens through mid week allowing winds to diminish. Gentle W to NW winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec through the period, except for a brief pulse of fresh gap winds late Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the western Caribbean will maintain pulses of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and off Nicaragua tonight and Sun night, and fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama tonight. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends west to east over the waters north of 20N. This is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over much of the area between 10N and 20N west of 120W, as noted in various recent scatterometer satellite passes. Concurrent altimeter passes show seas of 8 to 12 ft in this area, largely due to the trade wind flow but also due to a mix of primarily northerly swell. Favorable winds aloft and convergent flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere are supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the ITCZ. Farther east, lighter winds and slight seas are evident in the deep tropics east of 120W. A sharp upper trough reaches from southern Mexico to roughly the equator at 115W. Divergent flow aloft east of this feature is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 95W and 100W. Little change is expected in this pattern through early next week. The ridge will weaken into mid week, allowing winds and seas to diminish west of 120W. $$ Christensen