000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82.5W TO 04N89W. The ITCZ extends from 03N92W TO 01N108W TO 03N124W TO beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102.5W AND 135W, and from 06N TO 11N between 117W AND 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center near 25N120W is producing a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters tonight and yielding moderate northerly winds across most of the waters N of 19N, including the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 4-5 ft. The high will weaken and collapse on Mon as a cold front just west of the area moves eastward and inland during the day. Elsewhere gentle to moderate NW to W wind prevail between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel with little change expected through Wed. This cold front presently extends from 30N120W SW to beyond 21.5N130W. This front will continue to slowly weaken overnight and begin to dissipate as it reaches the W coast of Baja California Norte around sunrise. Behind the front, high pressure building into the area will produce fresh to locally strong NW to W winds off Baja California Sur and in the southern Gulf of California Mon night into late week, with seas of 5 to 8 ft in open waters. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse to strong tonight within a narrow plume to 14.5N, then diminish thereafter into at least late week. Seas will build to 7 to 8 ft overnight then diminish to 4-6 ft on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds, highest during the late nights and early mornings, over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Tue. Overnight scatterometer data showed E to ENE winds of 20-25 kt extending from the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border all the way to the Gulf of Fonseca. This broad area of gap winds will expand westward overnight, with seas likely to build to 8-10 ft by morning. Otherwise, look for peaks seas of 8 to 9 ft to develop downstream of this area each of the next few mornings. As the high pressure weakens toward mid-week, winds will decrease to moderate to fresh and seas will fall below 8 ft. Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the offshore waters into mid week, except for the Gulf of Panama, where moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh each night through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure building into the NW waters has nudged the cold front eastward tonight 30N120W to 21.5N130W. As mentioned above, the front will weaken this morning as it moves ashore across Baja California Norte. Low pressure accompanies this cold front tonight and is located just offshore of southern California. The pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure building into the region from the NE pacific is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds north of the local waters between 126W and 140W, and spread into the local waters north of 27N between 130W and 140W. A mix of NW swell and N wind swell from the low is producing seas of 9-12 ft across the NW waters west of 129W and north of 24N tonight. As this system shift eastward through Monday, expect moderate NW to W winds behind the front across the waters N of 25N, becoming NW to N through Mon night. Seas up to 12 ft N of 27N and W of 130W will subside overnight into Mon, falling below 8 ft N of 27N by Mon evening. Farther S, a surface trough just N of the ITCZ along 133W will meander between 130W and 140W over the next few days, generating scattered convection along it. As high pressure builds into northern areas for the first half of this week, the pressure gradient between it and the ITCZ will increase, leading to increasing winds and seas. Fresh to strong trade winds can be expected S of 22N and W of 115W by early Tue, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft in combined NW swell and trade wind swell. $$ Stripling