000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84.5W TO 03N90W. The ITCZ continues from 03N90W TO 02.5N104W TO 03N127W TO 02.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N TO 08.5N between 115W AND 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center near 27N119W is producing a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters this evening and yielding moderate northerly winds across most of the waters, including the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 3-4 ft except around 5 ft south of 22N. The high will weaken Mon and collapse by Mon night as a cold front just west of the area moves eastward and inland on Mon. Elsewhere gentle to moderate NW to W wind prevail between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel with little change expected through Wed. This cold front presently extends from 30N121W SW to beyond 24.5N130W. Satellite imagery suggests light to moderate convection occurring within 90 nm to the east of this front. This front will persist with this convection overnight, then begin to dissipate as it reaches the W coast of Baja California Norte Mon. Behind the front, the high pressure building into the area well produce fresh to locally strong NW to W winds off Baja California Sur and in the southern Gulf of California Mon night into late week, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in open waters. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will pulse to strong tonight within a narrow plume to 14.5N, then diminish thereafter into at least late week. Seas will build to 7 to 8 ft overnight then diminish to 4-6 ft on Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds, highest during the late nights and early mornings, over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Tue. Peaks seas of 8 to 9 ft can be expected to develop downstream each early morning. As the high pressure weakens toward mid-week, winds will decrease to moderate to fresh and seas will fall below 8 ft. Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the offshore waters into mid week, except for the Gulf of Panama, where moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh each night through Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure building into the NW waters has re-energized the cold front extending from 30N121W to 24.5N130W. This front will maintain its strength tonight, the dissipate Mon from near 30N117W to 24N124W. Low pressure accompanies this cold front tonight and is located offshore of southern California. The pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure building into the region from the NE pacific is producing strong N to NE winds just north of the local waters between 127W and 140W, and spread into the local waters north of 29N between 130W and 140W. A mix of NW swell and N wind swell from the low is producing seas of 9-12 ft across the NW waters west of 129W and north of 24N this evening. As this system shift eastward overnight through Monday, expect moderate NW to W winds behind the front, becoming NW to N through Mon night. Seas up to 12 ft N of 27N and W of 135 this evening will subside overnight into Mon, falling below 8 ft N of 27N Mon evening. Farther S, a surface trough just N of the ITCZ along 132W will meander between 130W and 140W over the next few days, generating scattered to numerous convection along it. As high pressure builds into northern areas for the first half of this week, the pressure gradient between it and the ITCZ will increase, leading to higher winds and seas. Fresh to strong trade winds can be expected S of 22N and W of 115W by early Tue, with seas building to 8 to 11 ft in combined NW swell and trade winds swell. $$ Stripling