000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221516
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1454 UTC Sun Mar 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 05N86W to 03N110W to 04N124W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 13N between 116W and 138W. Scattered moderate
convection is located from 02N to 05N between 90W and 105W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure center is located S of Guadalupe Island 
this morning, maintaining moderate N winds and slight to moderate
seas over Mexican waters N of 20N, including the Gulf of 
California. Generally, lighter winds and calmer seas prevail S of
20N.

A weakening cold front has diminished into a surface trough near
30N125W this morning. As the aforementioned high pressure
weakens, this trough will approach the waters offshore Baja
California Norte by tonight, then dissipate on Monday. A
secondary cold front will also weaken as it approaches Mon night.
High pressure building in the wake of these front will produce 
fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Sur and in the southern 
Gulf of California Mon night through mid week, with seas 5 to 7 
ft in open waters.

Strong N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to
fresh this afternoon, then pulse again to 20 to 25 kt tonight.
Seas through tonight will be 8 to 10 ft. Thereafter, light to
moderate winds are expected into mid-week.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain 
fresh to strong NE to E winds, highest during the late nights and
early mornings, over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early 
Tue. Peaks seas of 8 to 9 ft can be expected to develop 
downstream each early morning. As the high pressure weakens
toward mid-week, winds will decrease to moderate to fresh and
seas will fall below 8 ft.

Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the 
offshore waters through early this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening and slow moving cold front has devolved into a
surface trough that this morning is located from 30N125W to
23N131W. This trough will slide some E and SE through tonight,
before dissipating Mon. A secondary cold front will also weaken 
and dissipate over the same general area Mon into Mon night.
Fresh to strong NW winds can be expected behind these fronts
today, before diminishing to moderate tonight. N of 26N and W of
133W, seas of 12 to 14 ft will prevail today, then gradually
diminish to under 8 ft by Mon night.

Farther S, a surface trough just N of the ITCZ along 136W will
meander between 130W and 140W over the next few days, bringing
scattered to numerous convection along it.

As high pressure builds into northern areas for the first half of
this week, the pressure gradient between it and the ITCZ will
increase, leading to higher winds and seas. Moderate to strong
trade winds can be expected, with seas of 8 to 11 ft in combined
trade winds swell and NW swell.

$$
KONARIK