000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04.5N86W TO 03N102W TO 04.5N117W TO 03N127W TO 
04N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
AND 04.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 104W. Widely scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N TO 14N between 120W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure center persists tonight south of 
Guadalupe Island and is maintain gentle to moderate northerly winds
and slight seas over the Mexican offshore waters north of 20N, as
well as the southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle N to NW
wind flow persists elsewhere S of 20N to Puerto Angel. Latest 
altimeter satellite passes show seas of 4 to 6 ft.

A weak cold front is stalled just west of the high pressure, and
enters the area near 30N120W. The high pressure will gradually
collapse through Sun ahead of a newly energized front approaching
from farther west, and associated with a mid/upper system 
centered near 32N130W. The fronts will dissipate Mon as they
merge and move eastward through Baja California. High pressure 
building in the wake of the front will produce moderate to fresh
NW to N winds off Baja California Sur and in the southern Gulf 
of California late Mon into mid week, with seas 5 to 7 ft in 
open waters.

Recent scatterometer data to showed strong NW winds beginning to
spill across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the W of 94.5W. This is 
due to a tightening pressure gradient across the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec. Strong gap winds will spread southward overnight
across Tehuantepec to near 12.5N by around sunrise, and peak at
near 30 kt, Significant wave heights are expected to reach as 
8 to 10 ft. Winds will diminish gradually throughout the day
before another pulse of gap winds to 25 kt occurs again Sun
night. Light to moderate and variable winds are then expected
across the Gulf during the next few days.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain 
fresh to strong NE to E winds, highest during the late nights and
early mornings, over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Tue. 
Peaks seas of 8 to 9 ft can be expected to develop downstream
each early morning.

Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the 
offshore waters through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front stretching from 30N120W to 24N130W will 
become briefly reenergized overnight and drift southeast. The 
front is associated with a complex low centered near 32N130W.
Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh NW winds on the 
southwest quadrant of the low pressure, north of 25N west of 
130W. These winds are following a trough extending southward 
from the low pressure. Recent altimeter satellite data across
this area suggests seas of 8 to 13 ft in building longer period 
NW swell. Farther south, scatterometer data indicated a surface 
trough along the ITCZ, near 137W. This is related to a broad 
upper trough extending southward along roughly 145W, with a 
negatively tilted extension over the ITCZ through about 135W. 
This pattern is supporting the showers and thunderstorms along 
the ITCZ between 133W and 137W.

High pressure will build north of the area through mid week in
the wake of the front and low pressure, supporting fresh to
strong trade winds farther south into the deep tropics west of 
120W. Expect 8 to 11 ft seas in this area in a combination of 
trade wind swell and longer period NW swell.

$$
Stripling