000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212050 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2050 UTC Sat Mar 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 07N81W to 03N90W to 04N115W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 04N between 122W and 123W, and from 01N to 03N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest reports show increasing gap winds in Salina Cruz on the southern end of isthmus of Tehuantepec. Strong gap winds are expected into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight due to a tightening pressure gradient related to lower pressure setting up on either side of the isthmus over the next couple of days, and higher pressure farther north. Strong gap winds will pulse through late Sun before the pattern changes. Significant wave heights may reach as high as 8 to 10 ft during these pulses, within 240 nm downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther north, 1023 mb high pressure sitting south of Guadalupe Island is maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas over the Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Light to gentle flow persists elsewhere. Latest altimeter satellite passes show seas of 4 to 6 ft. A front is stalled just west of the high pressure. The high pressure will dissipate through Sun ahead of a newly energized front, associated with a mid/upper system centered near 33N133W. The front will dissipate early next week as it moves through Baja California. High pressure building in the wake of the front will allow moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Sur and in the southern Gulf of California late Mon into mid week, with seas 5 to 7 ft in open waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds, highest during the late nights and early mornings, over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Tue. Seas of 8 to 10 ft can be expected. Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the offshore waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front stretching from 30N121W to 22N140W will become briefly reenergized overnight and drift southeast. The front is associated with a deep layer low centered near 34N132W. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 19 ITCZ indicate fresh NW winds on the southwest quadrant of the low pressure, north of 25N west of 135W. These winds are following a trough extending southward from the low pressure. Concurrent altimeter satellite data show sea of 8 to 11 ft, with a component of longer period NW swell. Farther south, the same scatterometer pass indicated a surface trough along the ITCZ. This is related to a broad upper trough extending southward along roughly 147W, with a negatively tilted extension over the ITCZ through about 135W. This pattern is supporting the showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 138W and 140W. High pressure will build north of the area through mid week in the wake of the front and low pressure, supporting fresh to occasionally strong trade winds farther south into the deep tropics west of 120W. Expect 8 to 10 ft seas in this area in a combination of trade wind swell and longer period NW swell. $$ Christensen