000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Mar 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N80W TO 05.5N87W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W TO 04.5N111W TO 02N120W TO 04.5N135W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N TO 04N between 117W AND 131W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N TO 12.5N between 127W AND 141W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is centered W of Baja California near 26N119W producing a broad and weak ridge across the offshore waters extending SE to near 20N108W. A cold front is advancing eastward from 30N125W. Light anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the high and well offshore of Baja California while moderate NNW winds prevail within 90 nm of the Pacific coast of the peninsula. Seas are generally in the range of about 4-5 ft in NW swell across these waters. Moderate northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California south of 30N, and extend southward of Cabo San Lucas to 20N, where they begin to veer NE, and are NW along the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail across the waters south of the Baja peninsula. The high center will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken through Sun evening, with little change in overall conditions. The cold front west of the area along 125W and associated low pressure N of the discussion area will move gradually eastward over the weekend, and weaken considerably as they both move inland across southern California and Baja California Norte Mon. Strong high pressure behind this system will build into the region from the NW late Mon through Thu to produce a gradual increase in winds and seas across the area waters. Freshening northerly winds will also be seen inside the Gulf of California by Thu. A developing trough over the Bay of Campeche this weekend will lead to a narrow plume of fresh to strong north winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat evening through Sun evening before winds diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. These winds are expected to peak at a range of 20-30 kt early Sun morning over most of the Tehuantepec area, with 8-9 ft wave heights. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain the pattern of fresh to strong northeast to east winds pulsing at night and into the morning hours over the Gulf of Papagayo region and at fresh speeds during the rest of the mornings and during the afternoons through early next week. Wave heights are forecast to peak to 8 or 9 ft with these winds at night. Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the offshore waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad low pressure and the aforementioned cold front are analyzed across the waters N of the area between 125W and 140W, leaving weak high pressure to the N of 20N across the remaining waters. This pressure pattern is currently producing moderate to fresh NE tradewinds from about 07N to 20N between 110W to 140W, where seas are 7-9 ft in mixed swell and NE wind waves. Satellite imagery and overnight scatterometer data showed a sharp trough along 137W-138W from 02N to 12N, where a large area of strong convection is occurring. This area of active weather has been shifting slowly eastward and against the low level wind flow overnight, and will likely continue this trend through Sat morning. As the front and broad low weaken and shift inland into California and NW Mexico Mon, NW swell with seas 10-15 ft will move into NW portions to the W of 130W Sat afternoon through Sun. Behind this strong high pressure in excess of 1040 mb will build SE across the area waters beginning late Sun through mid week. This building ridge will produce a tight pressure gradient across the tradewind belt, where winds are expected to increase to 20-25 kt from 08N to 20N to the W of 115W Mon and Tue and then expand farther N Wed and Thu. $$ Stripling