000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2007 UTC Fri Mar 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08N79W to 05N90W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 02N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high is centered W of Baja California near 27N118W. A cold front is advancing eastward well west of this area. The pressure gradient associated with this high pressure area is allowing for light to gentle winds northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California Norte as well as to the west of the northern part of Baja California Sur. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of about 4-5 ft. Slightly stronger northerly winds, in the gentle to moderate range, are over the rest of the offshore waters to west of Baja California Sur, with slighter higher wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend as a gale center to the north of the area dives east- southeastward reaching near 34N130W late Sat night, then weaken as it tracks toward southern California late Sun into Mon. The tightening pressure gradient associated with strong high pressure ridging that will build southeastward in the wake of the gale center and related cold front will allow for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds to exist across the southern section of the Gulf of California as well as its entrance area, with wave heights in the range of 4-6 ft. Similar winds are expected along and to within about 60 nm of the Mexican coast during the night time and early morning hours from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, the cold front associated with the above mentioned gale center will weaken as it moves across the waters west of the northern part of Baja California Norte late Sun and through Mon with high pressure building into the region behind it through the middle of next week. The strong high pressure in its wake will tighten the gradient along and offshore the Baja California Peninsula by the middle of the upcoming week bringing fresh northerly winds to those waters. A large set of northwest swell will begin to impact the far northern section of these waters beginning on Wed afternoon. A developing trough over the Bay of Campeche this weekend will lead to a narrow plume of fresh to strong north winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat evening through Sun evening before winds diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. These winds are expected to peak at a range of 20-30 kt early Sun morning over most of the Tehuantepec area, with resultant wave heights in the range of 7-10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain the pattern of fresh to strong northeast to east winds pulsing at night and into the morning hours over the Gulf of Papagayo region and at fresh speeds during the rest of the mornings and during the afternoons through early next week. Wave heights are forecast to peak to 8 or 9 ft with these winds at night. Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the offshore waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data revealed an area of moderate to fresh north to northeast winds to the north of the ITCZ to near 19N and west of about 112W. Wave heights within this area of moderate to fresh north to northeast are in the range of 7-9 ft due to north to northeast swell. This area will shrink through late Sat, at which time the winds will increase to strong speeds from 08N to 10N and west 137W before diminishing to mainly fresh winds Mon morning, with wave heights of 8 ft primarily due to a northwest swell. In the wake of a cold front strong high pressure centered well to the northwest of the region will build south-southeastward over these waters this weekend, with the resultant tightening pressure gradient leading to an enhanced area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds across much of the central and western waters early next week and mainly fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere. Wave heights with these winds are expected to build to the 8-10 ft range. The cold front associated with a 1012 mb gale center north of the area near 34N132W at 20/1800 UTC extends from 30N129W to 24N140W. Strong southwest winds are within 180 nm east of the front north of 26N, with wave heights to 8 ft. West of the front, fresh northwest winds are present along with wave heights peaking to 9 ft in northwest to north swell. Areas of possible rain along embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and ahead of the front, north of 27N and east to near 122W. This area of precipitation is quickly advancing eastward. The gale center will track to the north-northwest through early Sat, then new low pressure will evolve from the broad cyclonic circulation north of the area and track eastward toward through Mon. this front will move E and dissipate early Sat evening. A new cold front associated to the new low pressure system will reach from near 30N132W to 27N140W by Sat evening followed by strong west to northwest winds W of front and wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft in northwest swell. This front is forecast to reach from near 30N126W to 25N131W and dissipating to 23N140W by Sun evening. $$ Formosa