000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Mar 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1010 mb low over northwest Colombia to the coast of southern Costa Rica at 09N84W and continues to 05N92W and to 03N103W, where overnight scatterometer data indicated it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 02N114W to 01N124W to 05N135W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 90W and 95W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 113W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high center well to the west of the area near 25N125W, is present over these waters. A cold front is advancing eastward well west of this area. The pressure gradient associated with this high pressure area is allowing for light to gentle winds northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California Norte as well as to the west of the northern part of Baja California Sur. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of about 4-5 ft. Slightly stronger northerly winds, in the gentle to moderate range, are over the rest of the offshore waters to west of Baja California Sur, with slighter higher wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through the upcoming weekend as a gale center to the north of the area dives east-southeastward reaching near 34N130W late Sat night, then weaken as it tracks toward southern California late Sun into Mon. The tightening pressure gradient associated with strong high pressure ridging that will build southeastward in the wake of the gale center and related cold front will allow for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds to exist across the southern section of the Gulf of California as well as its entrance area, with wave heights in the range of 4-6 ft. Similar winds are expected along and to within about 60 nm of the Mexican coast during the night time and early morning hours from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, the cold front associated with the above mentioned gale center will weaken as it moves across the waters west of the northern part of Baja California Norte late Sun and through Mon with high pressure building into the region behind it through the middle of next week. The strong high pressure in its wake, as described above, will tighten the gradient along and offshore the Baja California Peninsula by the middle of the upcoming week bringing fresh northerly winds to those waters. A large set of northwest swell will begin to impact the far northern section of these waters beginning on Wed afternoon. A developing trough over the Bay of Campeche this weekend will lead to a narrow plume of fresh to strong north winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat afternoon and through Sun afternoon before winds diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. These winds are expected to peak at a range of 20-30 kt early Sun morning over most of the Tehuantepec area, with resultant wave heights in the range of 7-10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain the pattern of fresh to strong northeast to east winds pulsing at night and into the morning hours over the Gulf of Papagayo region and at fresh speeds during the rest of the mornings and during the afternoons through early next week. Wave heights are forecast to peak to 8 or 9 ft with these winds at night. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds over and downstream of he Gulf of Panama, as ship with caller ID "VRID6" reported this morning near 05N80W, will continue into early next week. Peak wave heights with these winds are expected to be around 7 ft. Expect gentle to moderate winds to remain elsewhere across the offshore waters through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight scatterometer data revealed an area of moderate to fresh north to northeast winds to the north of the ITCZ to near 19N and west of about 112W. Wave heights within this area of moderate to fresh north to northeast are in the range of 7-9 ft due to north to northeast swell. This area will shrink through late Sat, at which time the winds will increase to strong speeds from 08N to 10N and west 137W before diminishing to mainly fresh winds Mon morning, with wave heights of 8 ft primarily due to a northwest swell. In the wake of the gale center and cold front described above under the Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section, strong high pressure centered well to the northwest of the region will build south-southeastward over these waters this weekend, with the resultant tightening pressure gradient leading to an enhanced area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds across much of the central and western waters early next week and mainly fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere. Wave heights with these winds are expected to build to the 8-10 ft range. The cold front associated with a developing 1011 mb gale center north of the area near 34N134W at 12Z this morning extends from 32N132W to 27N140W. Strong southwest winds are within 240 nm east of the front north of 27N, with wave heights up to 8 ft. West of the front, fresh northwest winds are present along with wave heights peaking to 9 ft in northwest to north swell. Areas of possible rain along embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and ahead of the front, north of 27N and east to near 122W. This area of precipitation is quickly advancing eastward. The gale center will track to the north- northwest through early Sat, then new low pressure will evolve from the broad cyclonic circulation north of the area and track eastward toward through Mon. Prior to the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it approaches a position from near 32N124W to 25N130W and to 23N140W early Sat and dissipate by early Sat evening. A new cold front associated to the new low pressure system will reach from near 32N129W to 26N140W by early Sat evening followed by strong west to northwest winds north of 27N and wave heights in the range of 10-15 ft in northwest swell. Winds may reach to near gale force along and just to the north of the northwest part of the area late Sat. Elsewhere west of second cold front, fresh to strong northwest to north winds are expected along with wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft in northwest to north swell. This front is forecast to reach from near 32N125W to 24N130W and dissipating to 22N140W by early Sun. A post-frontal trough is forecast from near 32N128W to 27N140W at that same time. Strong west to northwest winds, with wave heights in the range of 8-10 ft are forecast from 27N to 29N between 127W and 132W at that time. Wave heights of 10-15 ft in northwest swell are forecast also at that time to the north of 29N and west of 136W, with wave heights of 8-12 ft in northwest to north elsewhere within an area bounded from 30N140W to 30N134W to 30N126W to 27N128W to 24N134W to 23N140W and to 30N140W. $$ Aguirre