000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N75W TO 05.5N92W TO 04.5N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N100W TO 02N132W TO beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N TO 06.5N between 90W and 101W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A very weak ridge currently prevails across the offshore waters of Baja California tonight, ahead of a cold front well offshore and moving across 135W. This weak ridge and associated weak pressure gradient is yielding light to gentle winds across the Baja offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, while moderate N to NE winds prevail from there to Las Islas Revillagigedo. Seas are generally 4-5 ft across the northern waters and 5-7 ft in fading NW swell S of Cabo San Lazaro. This weak pressure pattern is expected to persist through the weekend as low pressure across the NW Pacific sinks SSE to along about 130W and just N of 30N, and gradually weakens. Moderate northerly winds will resume across most of the waters Fri night through Sun night with moderate seas prevailing. Similarly, moderate northerly winds are expected across the southern half of the Gulf of California under this pattern. Looking ahead, the remnants of the low pressure and an associated cold front will move eastward and inland across southern California and Baja California Sun night through Mon with high pressure building into the region behind it Mon night into the middle of next week. Expect strengthening northern winds and moderate NW swell during this time. Farther east, moderate to fresh NW winds were depicted by overnight scatterometer data from Cabo Corrientes to Manzanillo and offshore to 75 nm, while light moderate westerly winds prevailed from the waters of Michoacan to Puerto Angel. No significant changes are expected through the weekend, as wind will fluctuate from W to NW. A developing trough over the Bay of Campeche this weekend will lead to a narrow plume of fresh to strong N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat afternoon through Sun night before winds diminish. Winds are expected to peak at 20-30 kt early Sun morning and encompass most of the Tehuantepec area, with seas building to 9 ft before diminishing Monday morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week. Strongest winds during this period are expected at night when associated seas will build to near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the vicinity of the Azuero Peninsula through the weekend, with seas up to 7 ft in long period SW swell, while moderate northerly winds generally prevail across the remainder of the Gulf of Panama. Expect gentle to moderate winds to prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted N of the ITCZ to around 21N and to the W of 113W. Associated seas are mainly 7-9 ft across this same area in mixed N and NE swell. Winds and seas will diminish very slightly to the W of 120W through Sat before building high pressure freshens the tradewinds Sun through early next week. A cold front enters the NW waters tonight from 30N134W to 26.5N140W. Scattered light to moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm E of the front and N of 28N. Associated low pressure is centered N of the area near 34N135W at 1011 mb and is moving slowly SE. SW to W winds of 20-25 kt prevail within 90 nm SE of the front, while NW winds near 20 kt are found behind the front. This low center is expected to move ESE and slow considerably today, then gradually merge with a second low center well to the N of it Fri night through Sat. The merged low pressure will then shift eastward Sun through Mon and move inland across southern California and Baja California Norte. Gale force NW winds are expected to the W of this merged low center on Sat and will reach near 31N before weakening to around 30 kt as they cross 30N into the discussion area. Large NW swell will be generated with this system, and raise seas to 10-15 ft to the W of 130W Sat through Sun. $$ Stripling