000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191413 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1348 UTC Thu Mar 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 03N108W to 03N120W to 04N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 93W and 100W, from 02N to 04N between 110W and 115W, and from 03N to 07N between 123W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough that had produced strong winds and seas to 8 ft has moved east into NW Mexico, leading to decreasing winds and seas over the northern Gulf of California. Fresh mainly W winds and seas to 5 ft are expected for the remainder of the day before even calmer conditions tonight. A weakening cold front has now stalled from the Sonora/Sinaloa border across the southern Gulf of California, then SW from Baja California SE several hundred miles. This front will dissipate by Fri morning. Remnant NW swell is producing 7 to 9 ft seas over offshore waters of Baja California, but these will subside later today. A weak trough just inland of Mexico's west coast may lead to some fresh winds off Cabo Corrientes through Sat. Another stronger trough that will develop over the Bay of Campeche this weekend will create strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from early Sat morning into Monday morning. Winds will pulse to near gale Sat and Sun nights due to enhanced drainage flow. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will accompany these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and seas to 6 ft in mainly long period SW swell are expected elsewhere through the weekend and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week. Winds during this period will be highest at nights, reaching near gale force. Associated seas will build to 8-9 ft occassionally. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the vicinity of the Azuero Peninsula through the weekend, with seas up to 7 ft in long period SW swell. Expect gentle to moderate winds to prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front has stalled this morning and now stretches from Baja California Sur to near 16N118W. This front will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted N of the ITCZ to around 21N and to the W of this front. Associated seas are mainly 7-10 ft across this same area , with 5-8 ft in the NW portion of the area. Seas will diminish some through the end of the week. Another cold front will move into the NW waters this evening and extend from 30N137W to 27N140W by late tonight. An associated low pressure will become occluded mainly just north of the area this weekend, allowing several reinforcing fronts and troughs to rotate around it and into the area. Ahead of the first front, expect a surge of fresh to strong SW winds this afternoon into Fri evening. Then, a surge of strong W to NW winds is possible early Sat through Sat night N of 27N and W of 128W. Seas of around 8 ft will arrive in this area Fri night, with seas reaching to 12 ft by Sat, then peaking near 15 ft along 30N Sat night. $$ KONARIK