000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190813 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 02N108W to 04N117W to 01N126W to 04N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 93W and 100W, from 02N to 05N between 110W and 116W, and also from 01N to 05N between 122W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough is moving across the far northern Gulf of California waters early this morning with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it, along with seas to 8 ft just to the SE of the trough where the winds are the strongest due to some enhanced funneling through the Baja California Norte passes. Earlier scatterometer data indicated slightly higher winds ahead of the trough, however these winds have likely diminished slightly since then. The trough will dissipate through the day today with the associated winds and seas diminishing and subsiding by this afternoon. To the W of Baja California, remnant NW swell of 8-11 ft associated with a weakening cold front extending across northern mainland Mexico to Baja California Sur is propagating SE-S across the offshore waters there. Associated winds behind the front have diminished to 20 kt or less recently. The front will dissipate early today near Cabo San Lucas and winds will continue to diminish to moderate, with seas also gradually subsiding to less than 8 ft through the day. A surface trough developing over the Bay of Campeche over the weekend will induce fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by around sunrise Sat, increasing to near gale force Sat night with nocturnal drainage flow. This gap wind event will diminish briefly Sun afternoon, then will pulse again Sun night into early Mon. Seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft during the peak winds. Gentle to moderate winds and seas to 6 ft in mainly long period SW swell are expected elsewhere through the weekend and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the northern Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through at least the start of next week. Winds during this period will be highest at night, reaching near gale force. Associated seas will build to 8-9 ft occassionally. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the vicinity of the Azuero Peninsula through the next several days, with seas up to 7 ft in long period SW swell. Expect gentle to moderate winds to prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends across Baja California Sur to near 15N120W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted N of the ITCZ to around 21N and to the W of this front, except an area of fresh to strong trades from 10N to 18N W of 133W as captured by recent scatterometer passes. Associated seas are mainly 7-10 ft across this same area as noted by recent altimeter data, with 5-8 ft in the NW portion of the area. The front will dissipate through the day with moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-8 ft prevailing thereafter. Another cold front will push into the NW waters later today into tonight, and extend from 30N135W to 27N140W by this time tonight. An associated area of low pressure will become occluded this weekend, with several reinforcing fronts or troughs rotating through around it. A surge of fresh to strong SW flow will occur ahead of the first front later today, diminishing by Fri night, then a new surge of fresh to near gale force W-NW winds is possible on the back side of the low Sat through early Sun. Seas will reach 8 ft at best along 30N through early Sat, with larger NW swell arriving for the remainder of the weekend, peaking around 15 ft along 30N Sat night. $$ Lewitsky