000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ axis extends from 08N82W to 06N89W, where overnight scatteromter data indicated that it transitions to an ITCZ axis to 04N98W to 03N110W to 04N120W and to 07N133W. A trough extends from near 12N133W to 08N137W and to 03N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the ITCZ axis between 124W and 133W, and within 120 nm south of ITCZ axis between 89W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is 120 nm north of the ITCZ axis between 123W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed at 24N119W, with a ridge extending eastward to near 24N113W. This high center will continue to weaken and slowly move southeastward through tonight as a cold front just to its northwest approaches Baja California Norte while it also weakens. Ahead of the weakening front, fresh southwest winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California tonight, then diminish to moderate speeds early Wed. Wave heights in this area will be in the range of 4-6 ft late tonight into Wed. A 1011 mb low pressure system north of the area near 36N125W at 12Z this morning will quickly track southeastward to just north of the area near 31N119W by early this evening with a pressure of 1011 mb. A cold front will trail from this low to 30N122W, then to 27N124W and to near 25N128W. Strong northwest to north winds along with wave heights of 8-10 ft will follow in behind the front. By early Wed, the low pressure is forecast to be just north of the area near 31N119W with a pressure of 1008 mb, and its cold front entering the area at 30N117W, then to 25N117W and to 20N121W, where it will begin to dissipate to near 18N126W. Strong northwest to north winds and wave heights of 8-10 ft will continue west of the front, and strong southwest winds are expected over the far northern Gulf of California increasing to near gale force in the afternoon, including through all the gap areas. Wave heights are forecast to peak to or at 7 ft with these winds. By early Thu evening, the low pressure is expected to have moved inland the soutthwestern United States. Its associated weakening cold front is forecast to extend from the weakening low pressure to across the far northern Gulf of California, then 25N113W and to 24N114W and dissipating to 19N123W. Strong west to northwest winds are expected north of 28N and east of 119W to the coast of Baja California along with wave heights of 8-10 ft. By late Thu night, the cold front is forecast to be dissipating from the far northern Gulf of California to 21N114W. The aforemetioned strong west to northwest are forecast to have abated by that time, with wave heights of 8 ft in decaying northwest swelll from 25N to 28N east of 123W to the coast of Baja California. By early Thu mornong, winds are forecast to be west-northwest at 10-15 kt and wave heights lowering to around 5-7 ft. Strong north Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds will diminish to fresh winds by early this evening, with wave heights of 5-6 ft. Another gap winds event is possible late Fri night into Sat for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, mainly gentle to moderate winds and SW swell prodcing wave heights of around 4-5 ft will remain through end of the week, with winds strengthening slightly by the end of the week into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the Caribbean will generally maintain strong northeats to east gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through at least Sat night. These winds are forecast to reach near gale force late tonight, with wave heights in the range of 8-10 ft. Fresh north winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 05N into Thu, with locally strong winds likely during the evenings. South to southwest swell will continue over these waters for the rest of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient related with weak high pressure of 1019 mb centered near 24N119W is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast trades north f the ITCZ. Peak wave heights are up to 8 ft across the tradewind belt. Little change is expected during the next several days. Low pressure will skirt along 30N/31N toward Baja California Norte through the upcoming night and Wed. Strong to near gale force west to northwest winds behind the attendant cold front are forecast generally N of 25N and E of 133W into Wed. Peak wave heights should be in the range of 9-12 ft. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may move SE of 30N140W late in the week, with little impact currently anticipated. $$ Aguirre