000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Fri Mar 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N86W TO 02.5N101W. The ITCZ continues from 02.5N101W TO 02.5N127W TO beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N TO 05N between 91W AND 99W, and within 240 NM N AND 90 NM S OF ITCZ between 114W AND 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation continues to drift slowly eastward across southern California, Baja California and the desert SW of the U.S. this morning. The mean center of this deep layered circulation is currently centered over the California-Mexico border, while the associated surface low of 1011 mb is along the coast of Baja California Norte near 30.5N116.5W. A dying frontal trough extends from this surface low SW across the offshore waters to near 23N121.5W. NW to N winds near 15 kt prevail across the waters W of the trough this morning while W to SW winds near 10 kt prevail E of the trough to the Baja Peninsula. Seas are generally 4-5 ft E of the trough and 5-7 ft in new NNW swell W of the trough. Strong SW winds aloft associated with this system continue to stream across Baja California Sur, the southern Gulf of California and across northern Mexico, and are producing multilayered upper clouds and some very light rain moving quickly NE across this area. Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this feature are occurring along the leeward side of the Sierra Madre Occidentales across northern Durango and Chihuahua. This system is forecast to shift eastward and well inland this afternoon through tonight, with associated weather also shifting east and northeastward. Inside the Gulf of California, SW winds of 15-20 kt are assumed to be continuing across northern portions of the Gulf where seas are as high as 5 ft. Winds there will shift southerly to around 15 kt during the afternoon and then SW again tonight. Northerly winds near 15 kt prevail across the southern Gulf and extend to Cabo Corrientes and are expected to continue through the weekend, and increase to 15-20 kt during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Elsewhere from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, tranquil marine conditions generally will prevail through the weekend. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, variable winds and slight seas are expected through Sat evening before northerly gap winds spill across the Gulf Sat night into Sun morning, and peaking near 30 kt. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the weekend and into next week, with nocturnal winds pulsing to around 25 kt across much of the area. Fresh northerly winds are also forecast across extending downstream to near 05N during this time. No large swell is anticipated during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is centered across the NE Pacific along 140W and extends southward into the discussion area and then SE to 21N115W. Moderate N to NE winds prevail across the waters W of 120W this morning to about 18N, while moderate to fresh tradewinds are found S of 18N and W of 120W. NW swell moving through the area will maintain seas of 7-8 ft across the tradewind belt W of 130W through the weekend, while seas N of 20N and W of 120W are expected to remain around 6-8 ft in N to NW swell. Looking ahead, computer models suggest a significant low pressure system will develop offshore of California over the weekend and dive southward to near 31N by mid week, producing a significant increase in northerly swell and the potential for gale force winds associated with low pressure sweeping into the NE waters late Wed or Thu. $$ Stripling