000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1517 UTC Thu Mar 12 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W TO 02N97W. The ITCZ extends from 02N97W TO 03.5N110W TO 01.5N131W TO beyond 03.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N TO 07.5N between 94W AND 120W, and within 210 NM N OF ITCZ between 123W AND 140W. Scattered moderate convection aloft is noted within 90 NM SE OF line from 26N116W TO 21N121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A deep layered low pressure system remains just offshore of Baja California Norte and is shifting slowly eastward this morning. An associated middle to upper level trough is promoting a strong jetstream aloft from the topical Pacific along 130W NE across north and central portions of Baja California, NW Mexico and into SW U.S. The jetstream is transporting a large plume of mid- level moisture across these same areas and producing widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is analyzed near 29N122.5W with cold front extending SW to near 20N126W, while a surface trough meanders from the southern California-Arizona border southward across Baja California Norte to to near 20N117W. Fresh to strong southerly flow will prevail across the northern Gulf of California today and help to provide ample moisture into the desert SW of the U.S. through tonight. This entire system is forecast to shift eastward and inland through Friday afternoon, and will maintain this wet and unstable weather pattern. Otherwise, marine conditions across the area are relatively tranquil this morning, with W to SW winds 15 kt and less across much of the near and offshore waters of Baja, while N to NW winds of 15 to 20 kt prevail to the west of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds across the southern Gulf of California will diminish throughout the day to around 15 kt by afternoon. Moderate SW swell is mixing with new NW swell across the offshore waters to produce seas of generally 5-7 ft and will subside very slightly through Friday night. NW to N swell entering the area west of 120W will maintain seas of 6-9 ft through Friday night. Mostly fair skies, and gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel with little change expected through early Sat. A narrow plume of strong northerly gap winds spilling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish throughout the day today and become light and variable by Fri and continue into Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds will continue across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat, pulsing to locally strong at night. Seas in this area will gradually subside tonight through Fri night. No large swell is anticipated during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As mentioned above, a 1010 mb surface low is centered near 29N122.5W with cold front extending SW to near 20N126W. Fresh northerly winds occurring W and NW of the low will diminish today as the low drifts E and weakens to an open trough over the next couple of days. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the tropical Eastern Pacific S of 12N into the weekend, with seas generally 5-7 ft W of 115W. A large area of 8-9 ft seas from 06N to 11N between 94W and 102W originating from gap winds in Tehuantepec and Papagayo will diminish below 8 ft later today. Further west, a mix of NW swell and NE wind waves generated from fresh NE winds is producing an area of 7-9 ft seas from 04N to 24N to the W of 115W, and will gradually diminish to 7-8 ft into the weekend. $$ Stripling