000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1545 UTC Fri Mar 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the W Gulf of Mexico and NE Mexico is acting to funnel N strong gales across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and Sat. While the high pressure will weaken some by Mon, N gales are still expected through Tue morning. Model guidance indicates potential for minimal storm force winds through tonight. Indeed, ship ZPCD8 reported 50 kt N wind at 0900 UTC overnight, though this is likely somewhat overestimated. Peak wave heights will peak at around 20-22 ft today through Sat morning. Seas generated by these winds will combine with those originating from the Papagayo region, and propagate far downstream from the individual source regions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N82W to 03N91W to 04N97W, where scatterometer data indicates it transitions to an ITCZ, which then continues through 06N113W to 08N124W, where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 11N123W to 05N129W. The ITCZ axis continues from 07N131W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 121W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehunatepec gale wind event. A weak pressure pattern is supporting light to moderate winds across Mexico offshore waters, with the notable exception of a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event. Strong SW winds will affect the Gulf of California north of 29N Sat night and Sun as a weakening cold front moves onshore. Large NW swell should impact the waters west of Baja California from Sun through at least Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A N-S pressure gradient across Central America is driving NE strong to near gale offshore winds across the Papagayo region through at least Tue night. Peak seas will reach 10 to 12 ft. Gulf of Panama: The same pressure pattern will also force NE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Peak seas will reach 8 to 10 ft. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is producing large W to NW swell in the waters west of Guatemala and El Salvador for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extends from a 1019 mb high at 30N126W to 15N100W. The rather weak equatorward pressure gradient is forcing only gentle to moderate NE trades north of the ITCZ currently. N swell combined with weak wind waves are producing seas 8 to 10 ft between 05N and 12N west of 115W. Large swell propagating downstream from gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will expand and merge, to encompass most of the waters south of 13N between 90W and 110W by late Sun. A cold front will reach our NW corner at 30N140W later today and NE winds will increase behind the front this evening and Sat. However, the front will weaken as it moves westward north of 25N and dissipate by Sun. A stronger cold front will also reach the NW corner on Sun with both strong SW winds ahead and strong to near gale NW winds behding the front. Along the front, an intense low pressure system will develop near 30N130W early Mon. Strong winds and seas expected to build to 16-18 ft could impact the waters north of 20N and west of 130W as the attendant cold front pushes southeastward. $$ Landsea