000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building south along the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains will support strong gale force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next few days, continuing at least into Mon. Model guidance indicates potential for minimal storm force winds during the next 24 hours. Large wave heights will peak at around 20-21 ft later today through Sat morning. Seas generated by these winds will combine with those originating from the Papagayo region, and propagate far downstream from the individual source regions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N82W to 03N91W to 04N97W, where scatterometer data indicates it transitions to an ITCZ, which then continues through 06N113W to 08N124W, where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 11N123W to 05N129W. The ITCZ axis continues from 07N131W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 121W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehunatepec gale wind event. High pressure covers the area north of 19N and west of 112W. The associated gradient is supporting light to moderate winds across Mexico offshore waters, with the notable exception of a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale wind event. Strong southwest winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California late Sat as a cold front approaches from the west. Another cold front may bring strong southwest winds ahead of it for Pacific waters offshore Baja California Norte by the start of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong ridge will remain in place over the Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region will strengthen this weekend, and become near gale force Sat through Mon. Seas in this region could build as high as 11 ft during this time frame. Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama may pulse at times to strong through the weekend, especially Sun, when seas will also build to 8 to 10 ft. A trough of low pressure along the coast of Colombia and Ecuador will remain stationary into the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered near 28N126W combined with lower pressure in the ITCZ is creating a broad area of moderate to fresh winds from 04N to 13N west of 110W. Wave heights in this area are 7 to 9 ft. Sea heights will gradually decay through Sat night. A weakening cold front is forecast to move over the waters north of 25N west of 130W tonight and Sat, and bring fresh to strong north winds and wave heights of 8-10 ft. A stronger cold front will move into the region Sat night, bringing strong winds and wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft. An intense low pressure system will approach 30N130W early Mon. Strong winds and seas expected to build to 16-18 ft could impact the waters north of 20N and west of 130W as the attendant cold front pushes southeastward. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail east of 110W through Sun. Large swell propagating downstream from gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will expand and merge, to encompass most of the waters south of 13N between 90W and 110W by late Sun. $$ Mundell