000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 05 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning: Gale force north to northeast winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and are expected to persist into at least Mon. With the high pressure surging into the Gulf of Mexico, responsible for these gap winds, is strongest, near storm conditions are possible tonight and again Fri night. Seas of around 20 ft will occur from later tonight into Sat. High seas generated by these gales will combine with the area of 8-10 ft seas stemming from winds in the Papagayo region to cause an area of 8-11 ft seas to propagate downstream as far west as 120W by Mon evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N81W to 04N90W and to 04N98W, where latest scatterometer data indicates it transitions to the ITCZ axis to 06N108W and to 09N119W, where it is bisected by a trough that extends from 12N116W to 08N122W and to 05N140W. The ITCZ axis continues at 06N124W and to beyond the area at 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis west of 131W, and within 30 nm of trough between 88W and 91W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale wind event. High pressure ridging associated with a high center west of the area extending southeastward to near 19N117W. High pressure covers the area north of 19N and west of 112W. The associated gradient is allowing for winds of light to moderate speeds across the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of the aforementioned Gulf of Tehuantepec gape wind event. Late on Sat strong southwest winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California in response to cold front approaching from the west. Another cold front may bring strong southwest winds ahead of it for Pacific waters offshore Baja California Norte by the start of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong ridge will remain in place over the Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region will strengthen through the end of this week. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo are likely to reach near gale force this weekend into early next week. Seas in this region could build as high as 11 ft during this time frame. Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama may pulse at times to strong through the weekend, especially Sun, when seas will also build to 8 to 10 ft. A trough of low pressure along the coast of Colombia and Ecuador will remain stationary into the weekend, perhaps bringing showers and thunderstorms along with locally higher winds to coastal areas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high center is located near 28N126W. This feature combined with the lower pressure of the ITCZ is leading to a broad area of moderate to occasional fresh winds from 04N to 13N and west of about 110W. Wave heights in this area are peaking to 9 ft in north swell. These wave heights will gradually decay through Fri night. A weakening cold front is forecast to move over the waters north of 25N and west of 130W from Fri afternoon through Sat night. This front will bring fresh to strong north winds and waveheights in the range of 8 to 10 ft. This will continue until a stronger front moves in Sat night, bringing strong winds and wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft. A relatively strong low pressure system for this time of year will likely approach 30N130W early Mon. Strong winds and waveheights expected to build to as high as 18 ft could impact the waters north of 20N and west of 130W as the attendant cold front pushes southeastward over this part of the area. For the waters east of 110W, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail through the end of this week. Areas of waveheights of 8 ft seas created by swell propagating downstream from likely gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will expand and merge to encompass most of the waters south of 13N between 90W and 110W by late Sun. $$ Aguirre