000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051432 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1328 UTC Thu Mar 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gales are developing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and are expected to persist into at least Mon. With the high pressure surging into the Gulf of Mexico, responsible for these gap winds, is strongest, near storm conditions are possible tonight and again Fri night. Seas of around 20 ft will occur from later tonight into Sat. High seas generated by these gales will combine with the area of 8 to 10 ft seas stemming from winds in the Papagayo region to cause an area of 8 to 11 ft seas to propagate downstream as far west as 120W by Mon evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from from 04N83W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 07N120W and again from 07N124W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure ridge centered near 29N125W extends SE to near near the Revillagigedo Islands. With this ridge remaining weak, winds are moderate or less across Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of the aforementioned developing gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Late Sat strong SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California in response to cold front approaching from the west. Another cold front may bring strong SW winds ahead of it for Pacific waters offshore Baja California Norte by the start of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong ridge will remain in place over the Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region will strengthen through the end of this week. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo are likely to reach near gale force this weekend into early next week. Seas in this region could build as high as 11 ft during this time frame. Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama may pulse at times to strong through the weekend, especially Sun, when seas will also build to 8 to 10 ft. A trough of low pressure along the coast of Colombia and Ecuador will remain stationary into the weekend, perhaps bringing showers and thunderstorms and locally higher winds to coastal areas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 29N125W, combined with the lower pressure of the ITCZ is leading to a broad area of moderate to occasional fresh winds between 05N and 20N, W of 120W. Seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft As high pressure weakens and slides east, wind and seas will diminish through Fri. Later Fri, a weakening cold front will move into the waters N of 25N and W of 130W, bringing fresh to strong N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft. This will continue until a stronger front moves in Sat night, bringing strong winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft. A relatively strong low pressure system for this time of year will likely approach 30N130W early Mon. Strong winds and seas building as high as 17 ft could affect the waters north of 20N and west of 130W as the attendant cold front swings SE into this area. For the waters E of 110W, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail through the end of this week. Areas of 8 ft seas created by swell propagating downstream from likely gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will expand and merge to encompass most of the waters south of 13N between 90W and 110W by late Sun. $$ KONARIK