000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 211 UTC Thu Mar 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gales are expected to commence around midday Thu over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as a strong cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico ushers in strong high pres over the basin. Winds as high as 40 to 45 kt and seas topping out around 19 ft are expected as this event peaks Fri and Fri night. However, the gales and hazardous seas will persist through Sun night. High seas generated by these gales will combine with the area of 8 ft seas stemming from winds in the Papagayo region to cause an area of 8 to 10 ft seas to propagate downstream as far W as 120W by Mon evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N81W to 05N86W. The ITCZ has 2 segments extending from 05N86W to 06N118W and from 06N120W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 06N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pres ridge extending SE from near 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually shift E but maintain light to moderate NW to N winds over the waters W of Baja through Sat night. Strong SW winds will affect the Gulf of California N of 29N Sat night as a weakening cold front moves onshore from the Pacific. Decaying NW swell of 8 to 9 ft offshore Baja California Sur will propagate SE today but fall below 8 ft tonight. For more on the impending gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, please refer to the Special Features Section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong high pres ridge will remain in place over the Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region will strengthen through the end of this week. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo could reach near gale force Sun and Mon. Seas in this region could build as high as 11 ft during this time frame. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama could become strong Sun, with seas building to between 8 and 9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure measuring 1027 mb centered near 32N143W is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh winds between 05N and 20N and W of 110W, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. As the high shifts E and weakens, winds and seas in this region will diminish through Thu night. By Fri, a cold front will move into the waters N of 25N and W of 130W, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds and N swell of 8 to 9 ft. Looking ahead, this front is likely to dissipate for the start of next week as it crosses the Baja Peninsula and the Mexican State of Sonora. A relatively strong low pres system for this time of year will approach 30N130W on Mon. Strong winds and seas building as high as 17 ft could affect the waters N of 20N and W of 130W as the attendant cold front swings SE into this area. For the waters E of 110W, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail through the end of this week. Areas of 8 ft seas created by swell propagating downstream from likely gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will expand and merge to encompass most of the waters S of 13N between 90W and 110W by late Sun. $$ CAM