000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040852 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 852 UTC Wed Mar 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale force Tehuantepec gap wind is likely to begin around midday on Thu and continue until Sun as a strong cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will peak on Fri, when gales of around 40 kt generate seas up to 19 ft. The area of 8 ft seas will combine with the area of 8 ft seas generated downstream from the Gulf of Papagayo Fri night through Mon. The area of 8 ft seas will propagate as far W as 120W by Mon evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N89W to 05N130W to beyond 04N140W. No significant convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Regional surface and upper air observations indicate a weakening cold front from near Cabo Corrientes to just south of Socorro Island. The front will move little before stalling and dissipating later this morning. Fresh to locally strong NW winds follow the front from the southern Gulf of California to near the Tres Marias Islands, as a small area of high pressure builds behind the front over Sonora, as observed by an earlier ship observation. Winds will diminish through the morning as the high and front weaken. NW swell behind the front is maintaining seas of 8 to 12 ft off Baja, with the highest seas likely between Cabo San Lazaro and Socorro Island. The swell will decay through Thu night, with seas falling below 8 ft later today. Looking ahead, winds over the northern Gulf are forecast to become S to SW and increase to fresh to strong Sat ahead of an approaching cold front. For more on the impending gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, please refer to the Special Features Section. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A strong high pres ridge will remain in place over the Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region will strengthen this weekend. Winds could reach near gale force as seas build as high as 11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama could become strong Sun night, with seas building as high as 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong 1035 mb high pressure centered near 37N143W is supporting a broad area of fresh to strong winds N of 05N and W of 120W, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft, as noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data. These winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. For the waters E of 110W, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail through the end of this week. Areas of 8 ft seas created by swell propagating downstream from likely gap winds over the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will expand and merge to encompass most of the waters S of 13N between 90W and 110W by Sun night. Looking ahead, another front is expected to move into the waters north of 25N west of 130W Fri, followed by fresh northerly winds and northerly swell to 8 ft. The front is expected to dissipate Sun night after it reaches the Baja Peninsula. $$ Christensen