000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030825
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
825 UTC Tue Mar 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ axis extends from 05N88W to 04N110W to 03N140W. No 
significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1009 mb low pressure is centered over the northern Gulf of 
California, with an associated frontal boundary reaching across
Sonora and through the central Gulf of California through
southern Baja California Sur. The low will shift northeast into
the southern Rockies today as the front continues southward. The
front will become diffuse tonight from near Cabo Corrientes to
south of Socorro Island. Fresh to strong NW winds off the coast
of Baja California behind the front will diminish tonight as
well. NW swell accompanies the front as well, with seas of 8 to 
16 ft off the entire Baja California peninsula through today, and
gradually subside through Wed.

Moderate to fresh NW winds in the northern Gulf of California 
will migrate south across the Gulf as the front moves SE. 
Looking ahead, winds in the northern Gulf are forecast to become 
southerly and increase to fresh to strong this weekend.

A gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Thu night 
through Sat morning as a strong cold front crosses the Gulf of 
Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong offshore winds will
occasionally pulse in the Papagayo region through much of the 
week, strengthening by the end of the week into the weekend, with
seas occasionally building to 8 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds are expected through 
Fri, strengthening this weekend with seas to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is the waters north of 18N, and will continue to 
sink south today before stalling and dissipating. High pressure 
north of the cold front is supporting a broad area of fresh to 
strong winds mainly N of 05N and W of 120W. Recent altimeter data
confirms seas are 8 to 12 ft over large area north of 20N
primarily in northerly swell. The altimeter passes missed the
highest seas however, estimated to be at least 15 ft near 
27N125W. Another area of seas is from 05N to 20N west of 125W,
consisting of northerly swell along with shorter-period NE trade
wind swell. The winds and seas are expected to diminish through
mid week as the front dissipates and the high pressure weakens,
leaving only 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell in the deep tropics.

Farther east in the deep tropics, fresh trade winds along with 
swell originating from earlier gap wind events in the Gulfs of 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo will diminish later this morning.

Looking ahead, another front is expected to move into the waters
north of 25N west of 130W fri, followed by fresh northerly winds
and northerly swell to 8 ft. Farther east, another strong gap
wind event through the Gulf of Tehuantepec will deliver 8 to 10
ft easterly swell into the deep tropics east of 105W by Sat.

$$
Christensen