000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 04N92W to 02N120W to 03N138W. No significant convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong SW to W gap winds are occurring over the northern Gulf of California in association with a weak boundary along 30.5N. Seas are near 8 ft in the northern Gulf in association with these winds. These conditions are forecast to persist into early Mon before diminishing. A cold front is expected to cross the Baja offshore waters late tonight through Mon night. This front will be followed by strengthening NW winds and building seas across the Baja offshore waters. Wave heights will peak around 15-18 ft in large NW swell near Guadalupe Island late Mon, with seas building to 8 ft or greater across the region by Tue. The associated NW swell will continue propagating southward through Wed while gradually decaying. Much more tranquil marine conditions are expected for the end of the week under a weak pressure gradient. Elsewhere, high pressure has shifted eastward over the far NE Gulf of Mexico. This has relaxed the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and allowed gales to diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, a gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Thu night through Fri night as a strong cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The pressure gradient remains strong over Central America and the western Caribbean behind a dissipating stationary front extending across the central Caribbean to southern Nicaragua. Marginal gale force winds in the Papagayo region have diminished, however fresh to near gale force offshore winds will continue through early Mon, with mainly fresh to locally strong winds for the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, seas of 8-10 ft downwind of these winds will remain possible into early Mon before subsiding. Mixed swell from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind events is still supporting 7-9 ft seas off Guatemala and El Salvador and well downstream of the Papagayo region this afternoon. The associated winds have diminished and thus the resultant seas will subside tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds will continue over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through early Mon, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the week. Seas of 8-9 ft associated with these winds will subside tonight as the winds diminish. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the northern waters 30N122W to 27N130W to 30N139W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to near gale force northerly winds behind the front, with building seas in fresh northerly swell behind the front as well. The front and associated winds and seas will propagate SE through the early part of the week, with seas building to up to 18-20 ft near 30N123W behind the boundary by Mon. The front will weaken as it moves toward Mexico, with winds and seas diminishing by mid- week. Marine conditions will greatly improve toward the end of the week as a weak pressure gradient begins to dominate the region. The next cold front may approach and slip SE of 30N140W during the day on Fri, with increasing northerly winds and associated seas behind the boundary. A surface trough is shifting W of the area, analyzed from 12N138W to 03N142W. A tight pressure gradient exists between this trough and strong building high pressure N of the area with fresh to near gale force trades noted N of 10N and W of 130W, along with large seas of 12-16 ft. Stronger winds have shifted W of 140W in the past few hours where gale warnings are in effect. Fresh to strong trades will persist through Tue, diminishing thereafter as the pressure gradient greatly slackens, and seas will also subside through the early part of the week as the strongest winds shift W of the area. $$ Lewitsky