000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2013 UTC Sun Mar 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific High Seas Gale Warning: A surface trough is analyzed from 12N136W to 06N140W. Recent scatterometer data showed gale force winds persisting to the E of the trough. A large area of surrounding fresh to strong trades covers the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 128W. The trough and gale force conditions are forecast to shift W of 140W into the central Pacific basin later this evening, while the fresh to strong trades persist through Tue, diminishing thereafter as the pressure gradient greatly slackens. In the meantime, recently altimeter data showed large seas of 13-19 ft in the vicinity of these winds. Seas will also subside through the early part of the week as the strongest winds shift W of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 04N93W. The ITCZ begins near 04N93W and continues to 02N115W to 04N137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 104W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong SW to W gap winds are occurring over the northern Gulf of California in association with a weak boundary along 30.5N. Seas are near 8 ft in the northern Gulf in association with these winds. These conditions are forecast to persist into early Mon before diminishing. A cold front is expected to cross the Baja offshore waters late tonight through Mon night. This front will be followed by strengthening NW winds and building seas across the Baja offshore waters. Wave heights will peak around 15-18 ft in large NW swell near Guadalupe Island late Mon, with seas building to 8 ft or greater across the region by Tue. The associated NW swell will continue propagating southward through Wed while gradually decaying. Much more tranquil marine conditions are expected for the end of the week under a weak pressure gradient. Elsewhere, high pressure has shifted eastward over the far NE Gulf of Mexico. This has relaxed the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and allowed gales to diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, a gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Thu night through Fri night as a strong cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The pressure gradient remains strong over Central America and the western Caribbean behind a stationary front extending across the central Caribbean to southern Nicaragua. Marginal gale force winds in the Papagayo region have diminished, however fresh to near gale force offshore winds will continue through early Mon, with mainly fresh to locally strong winds for the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, seas of 8-11 ft downwind of these winds will remain possible into early Mon before subsiding. Mixed swell from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind events is still supporting 8-9 ft seas off Guatemala and El Salvador and well downstream of the Papagayo region this afternoon. The associated winds have diminished and thus the resultant seas will subside tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds will continue over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through early Mon, then moderate to fresh through the remainder of the week. Seas of 8-9 ft associated with these winds will subside tonight as the winds diminish. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a Pacific high seas gale warning. A cold front has entered the northern waters, analyzed from 30N125W to 28N130W to 30N137W. Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to near gale force northerly winds behind the front, with building seas in fresh northerly swell behind the front as well. The front and associated winds and seas will propagate SE through the early part of the week, with seas building to up to 18-20 ft near 30N123W behind the boundary by Mon. The front will weaken as it moves toward Mexico, with winds and seas diminishing by mid- week. Marine conditions will greatly improve mid-week toward the end of the week as a weak pressure gradient begins to dominate the region. The next cold front may approach and slip SE of 30N140W during the day on Fri with increasing northerly winds and associated seas behind the boundary. $$ Lewitsky