000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Sun Mar 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains strong over Central America and the western Caribbean behind a stationary front extending across the central Caribbean to southern Nicaragua. Marginal gale force winds with seas to 12 ft over the Papagayo region will diminish by this afternoon. Expect pulses to near gale force tonight and Mon night. Pacific High Seas Gale Warning: A surface trough is analyzed from 07N140W to 12N137W this morning. Overnight scatterometer data confirmed gale force winds west of 135W in association with this feature as very strong high pressure prevails northwest of the region. Seas are likely running 12-17 ft within the gales. The strongest winds will pass west of 140W later today as the trough shifts westward. Then, strong trades will persist west of 130W for the next couple days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 04N92W. The ITCZ begins near 04N92W and continues to 02N115W to 04N137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 02N east of 82W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 102W and 105W, and from 05N to 09N between 110W and 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is analyzed across the northern Baja California offshore waters this morning from 30N119W to 27N124W. Strong SW to W gap winds are occurring over the northern Gulf of California ahead of this front, and these conditions will persist tonight as seas build to near 8 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure has shifted eastward over the far NE Gulf of Mexico. This has relaxed the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and allowed overnight gales to diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the Baja offshore waters tonight through Mon night. This front will be followed by strengthening NW winds and building seas across the Baja offshore waters. Wave heights will peak around 16-18 ft in large NW swell near Guadalupe Island late Mon, with seas building to 8 ft or greater across the region by Tue. The associated NW swell will continue propagating southward through Wed while gradually decaying. Looking ahead, a gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event is possible Thu and Thu night as a strong cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning in the Papagayo region. Mixed swell from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind events is still supporting 8-10 ft seas off Guatemala and El Salvador and well downstream of the Papagayo region this morning. These seas will subside tonight as the gap winds diminish. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds likely continue downstream of the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 8-9 ft. High pressure well north of the area will weaken early this week, allowing these winds to diminish to moderate speeds through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a Pacific high seas gale warning. Fresh trade winds were noted in overnight scatterometer passes south of 12N and east of 106W. Seas in this region are generally 8-11 ft, in a mixture of locally generated wind waves as well as NE and SW swell. This trade wind flow and associated seas will diminish early this week as the gap winds weaken. Farther west, a broad region of fresh to strong trades persists west of 125W per overnight scatterometer data. These winds are driven by the strong pressure gradient between the ITCZ and 1041 mb high pressure centered NW of the region near 37N149W. Seas in this region likely range from 8-12 ft, with higher seas associated with the gales described above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the waters west of 135W, east of an upper-level trough positioned west of 140W. A weak cold front will cross the northern waters east of 125W this morning, followed by a reinforcing cold front later today through Mon night. The second front will be followed by strong to near gale force NW to N winds and seas building to 12 ft or greater north of 25N east of 130W on Mon. Associated NW swell will propagate southward through mid week. Marine conditions will gradually improve Wed through Thu night as residual swell decays over the region and high pressure weakens north of the area, allowing the pressure gradient to relax over the high seas. $$ Reinhart