000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure centered over the central Gulf of Mexico is supporting a tight pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Northerly gales will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec area through tonight, then will diminish Sun as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Peak seas around 19 ft will gradually subside through Sun. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event is possible Thu and Thu night as another strong cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient across Central America and the western Caribbean will support gale force winds over the Papagayo region into early Sun, diminishing by Sun afternoon. Peak seas were recently analyzed to 12 ft downstream of the Gulf, which are expected to build to 14 ft late tonight. Looking ahead, strong winds will continue over the region through early next week, pulsing to near gale force each night. Pacific High Seas Gale Warning: A broad mid to upper-level trough W of 140W has induced the development of a surface trough between 135W and 140W per recent scatterometer data. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N W of 133W in association with this feature. The tightening pressure gradient between the trough and very strong high pressure building NW of the region is supporting increasing winds to marginal gale force, and these winds will continue into early Sun, then shift W of 140W as the trough axis moves westward. Associated seas will build to 12-17 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from near the Costa Rica/Panama border at 08N83W to 04N89W. The ITCZ extends from 04N89W to 02N100W to 04N120W to 10N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 94W and 95W, from 01N to 04N between 104W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 116W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters between an offshore high pressure ridge and a low pressure trough near the Gulf of California. A mid to upper-level trough will approach the area from the N tonight and drive a cold front southward that will cross the Baja California region through early next week. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California starting tonight, reaching near gale force by Sun night as seas build to near 8 ft. Expect strengthening NW winds and building seas over the Baja offshore waters following the front, with seas greater than 8 ft expected across the Baja offshore waters by Tue. Wave heights will peak around 16-18 ft near Guadalupe Island late Mon. The associated NW swell will continue propagating southward through Wed while gradually decaying. Much more tranquil marine conditions are currently forecast for the end of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning in the Papagayo region. Large NW swell generated by the Tehuantepec gales will combine with easterly swell from the Papagayo region to maintain rough seas offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador this weekend. Seas will reach as high as 14 ft well offshore of Guatemala late this afternoon. Wave heights will subside early next week as the gap winds diminish. Elsewhere, strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama this weekend, then remain fresh Mon through Thu. Seas will peak around 9-10 ft well downstream of the Gulf this weekend, then remain 8 ft or less through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a Pacific high seas gale warning. Fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail W of 125W N of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are generally 8-10 ft in this region. Elsewhere, a large area of 8-12 ft seas in N swell extends well downstream of the Tehuantepec region, as far S as the equator to around 100W. An area of 8-10 ft seas in NW swell over the NW portion will gradually spread southeastward through Sun. A cold front will move into the waters N of 20N Sun through Mon, followed by strengthening NW winds and building seas. Associated NW swell will move southward across the region through early next week, with seas 12 ft or greater expected N of 25N E of 130W by Mon. Marine conditions will gradually improve Tue through Thu night as residual swell decays over the region and high pressure weakens north of the area, allowing the pressure gradient to relax over the high seas. $$ Lewitsky