000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure extending from the western Gulf of Mexico southward across eastern Mexico is supporting a strong pressure gradient across the Chivela Pass. A recent scatterometer pass indicated northerly gale force winds across the area which are forecast to continue into early Sun. Seas across this area are up to around 15-17 ft. Seas will subside by the end of the weekend as the gale force winds diminish. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient across Central America and the western Caribbean is supporting near gale force winds across the Papagayo region as noted by a recent scatterometer pass. Winds are forecast to increase to minimal gale force late tonight, then continue into early Sun before subsiding Sun afternoon. Winds will remain strong through early next week. Seas will build to 12-15 ft by early Sat. Pacific High Seas Gale Warning: A broad mid to upper-level trough W of 140W is inducing a surface trough which is analyzed from 14N133W to 06N139W. The enhanced pressure gradient between this trough and very strong high pressure building NW of the region is supporting fresh to near gale force winds which are forecast to strengthen to minimal gale force by late Sat afternoon. These winds will continue into early Sun before shifting W of 140W along with the surface trough. Associated seas will build to 12-17 ft within the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 07N83W to 02N100W to 04N120W to 09N135W. A surface trough is analyzed to the W of the ITCZ from 14N133W to 06N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 04N between 96W and 100W, within 180 nm NE of the ITCZ between 124W and 133W, and also within 180 nm either side of the trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Gentle winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters with a weak pressure pattern in place across the region. A low pressure trough is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force SW winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night ahead of an approaching cold front. The weakening front will move into the northern waters on Mon, accompanied by strong NW winds and large NW swell with seas greater than 12 ft. This swell will propagate across the southern Baja California waters through early next week while gradually decaying. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a gale warning in the Papagayo region. Large NW swell generated by the Tehuantepec gales will combine with easterly swell from the Papagayo region to maintain rough seas offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador through this weekend. Seas will reach 12-16 ft well offshore of Guatemala by Sat morning. Wave heights will subside by early next week as the gap winds diminish. Elsewhere, strong winds will pulse over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama through this weekend. Seas will peak around 8-10 ft each day well downstream of the Gulf. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details about a Pacific high seas gale warning. Fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail W of 120W N of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are generally running 8-11 ft in this region. Elsewhere, a large area of 8-12 ft seas in N to NE swell extends well downstream of the Tehuantepec region. NW swell of 8-10 ft over the NW corner will gradually spread E-SE through the weekend. A cold front will move into the northern waters Sun through Sun night, followed by strengthening NW winds and building seas. Associated and reinforcing NW swell will move southward across the region through early next week, with seas 12 ft or greater expected north of 25N east of 130W by Mon night. Marine conditions are forecast to gradually improve Tue through Wed night with a weaker pressure pattern in place. $$ Lewitsky