000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in NE Mexico and Texas is funneling winds through the Chivela Pass, which become N to NE strong gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Earlier scatterometer data confirmed wind speeds ranging from 30 knots to 45 knots in this area. An altimeter pass was showing very large seas. Strong gale conditions will persist through the next few days, before diminishing on Sunday morning. Large and dangerous seas to about 25 feet are occurring with these winds. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Building high pressure in Central America will force a Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event, to begin tonight and to continue through early next week. Expect NE strong to near gale-force winds, reaching gale-force from Friday night through Sunday morning. It is possible that this may be upgraded to a gale warning, if conditions warrant. Peak seas will pulse to a range of 12 feet to 15 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ is along 06N85W 01N99W 07N128W, beyond 05N140W. Precipitation: Scattered strong within 100 nm to 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 123W and 126W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 120W westward. Isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 90W and 97W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: The earlier NW fresh-to-strong breezes have slowed down to moderate-to-fresh in the Gulf of California. No ship observations were available, though maximum seas are estimated to range from 6 to 8 feet. SW winds increase to fresh, just to the north of 30N, on Saturday night. The fresh winds become strong SW winds on Sunday in the same area. The winds become SW to W, and stay fresh from 29N northward. W to NW winds become strong from 27N to 28.5N, from Sunday night to Monday morning. Strong NW winds develop on Tuesday night in the southernmost part of the Gulf of California, from 22N to 26N, slowing down to fresh by Wednesday morning. High pressure prevails elsewhere, in the offshore waters to the northwest of Baja California, with gentle to moderate NE winds off the northern Baja peninsula. Large NW swell will impact the waters W of Baja California on Sunday and Monday, along with increasing NW winds. Peak swell are anticipated to reach near 17 feet on Monday afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a developing gale warning in the Gulf of Papagayo. Large NW swell, generated by the winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is propagating into the waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, and it should continue through early Sunday. The maximum sea height is forecast to reach 16 feet, on Saturday, in the swell that will be moving from the Gulf of Tehuantepec toward the offshore waters of Guatemala. Sea heights will range from 10 feet to 12 feet in that area through Sunday. Gulf of Panama: High pressure will cause pulsing N fresh to strong breezes in the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Peak seas will pulse to 8-9 feet. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 feet will prevail across the remainder of the week into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure center is well W of California this morning. The surface pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ to the S is causing NE to E fresh to strong trade winds from 10N to 17N. The strong trade winds should expand in area, and reach to near gale-force conditions by Sunday, as the high center is anticipated to build more. It is possible that the peak sea heights may build to 16 feet on Sunday, and falling to 12 feet to 13 feet on Monday. The fastest wind speeds and the hightest sea heights will be generally from 06N northward from 130W westward. Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Sun and Mon, along with increasing NW winds. Peak swell are anticipated to reach near 17 feet on Monday afternoon. $$ mt