000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251533 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1325 UTC Tue Feb 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to commence on Wed as a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind the front will provide a very tight pressure gradient over the area, and bring an increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly increase to storm force by Wed evening. Storm conditions are forecast to persist through late Thu, and the gale force winds are expected to continue through Sat night into early Sun morning. Seas are forecast to build to 22-23 ft with this upcoming event by Thu morning. Marine interest transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 03N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 86W and 91W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula while a surface trough is located over western Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California S of 28N. By this evening, strong high pressure building across the Great Basin region of the United States will help to strengthen winds over the entire Gulf of California. Winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 30 kt, with seas building to 8 to 10 ft mainly S of 28N on Wed. Fresh to strong winds will also affect most of the Baja California peninsula, but particularly the northern part. Winds are forecast to diminish to 20 to 25 kt across the Gulf of California by Thu morning with seas of 8 to 9 ft S of 28N. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. A set of NW swell propagating across the waters W of Baja California has reached the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas will start to subside S of Cabo San Lazaro on Wed. As winds increase in the Gulf of California, fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected to filter through the passages in Baja California into the Pacific offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. This will keep seas in the 8 to 10 ft range N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will strengthen in the Papagayo region on Thu as high pressure builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on Fri, possibly reaching minimal gale force during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Panama: Winds will increase across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 04N or 05N beginning on Fri as high pressure builds N of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1034 mb, centered N of the area near 36N132W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas in the 8-10 ft range prevails over this area. The area of high pressure will start to weaken on Wed while moving northward. This will decrease aerial coverage of the fresh to strong trades. Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail over much of the forecast waters W of 110W in a broad mix of swells. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the NW waters on Wed and spread SE. Seas will peak near 11 ft over the far NW waters Wed night before starting to subside. $$ GR