000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242041 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Mon Feb 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 04N95W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 04N111W to 02N120W to 04N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 88W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 09N between 124W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico the middle of the week. The pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake of the cold front and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific will tighten and help usher in the next gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed. Winds will start to funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the day on Wednesday. Winds are forecast to increase to 30-40 kt by Wed evening, then possibly reaching minimal storm force by Wed night. Winds will diminish to gale force on Thu, and continue to prevail through Sat. Seas with this upcoming event are forecast to peak near 23 ft Thu morning. Gulf of California: A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula while a surface trough is located over western Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California S of 27N. By the middle of the week, high pressure will build across the Great Basin region of the United States. This will help to strengthen winds over most of the Gulf of California, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft mainly S of 27N on Wed. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. A set of NW swell propagating across the waters W of Baja California will continue to spread southward, bringing seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas will start to subside by the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast to filter through the passages in Baja California Norte into the Pacific offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed as winds increase in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will strengthen Thu as high pressure builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on Fri, possibly reaching minimal gale force during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Panama: Winds will increase Fri as high pressure builds N of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1038 mb, centered N of the area near 39N129W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas in the 9-11 ft range prevails over this area. The area of high pressure will start to weaken through midweek. This will decrease aerial coverage of the fresh to strong trades. Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail over much of the forecast waters W of 110W in a broads mix of swell. The swell will gradually subside over the next couple of days, and aerial coverage of seas 8 ft or greater will decrease. By midweek, much of the waters W of 110W will subside below 8 ft. A new set of long period NW swell will reach the NW waters on Wed and spread SE. Seas will peak near 11 ft over the far NW waters Wed night before starting to subside. $$ AL