000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1417 UTC Mon Feb 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 04N90W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 02N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 90W and 110W, and from 04N to 09N between 124W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to commence on Wed as a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind the front will provide a very tight pressure gradient over the area, and bring an increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, marine guidance suggests increasing winds to 30-40 kt by Wed evening, possibly reaching minimal storm force by Wed night. Seas are forecast to build to 21-22 ft with this event by Thu morning. Gulf of California: Latest scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California S of 27N. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between a ridge across the offshore waters of Baja California and a meandering trough located along the coast of NW Mexico. By the middle of the week, a high pressure will build across the Great Basin region of the United States. This will also help to strengthen winds over most of the Gulf of California, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft mainly S of 27N on Wed. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. A set of NW swell propagating across the waters W of Baja California will continue to spread southward today. This will bring seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands this afternoon. Seas will start to subside by the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast to filter through the passages in Baja California Norte into the Pacific offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed as winds increase in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue through late this morning before diminishing. Winds will once again strengthen Thu as high pressure builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on Fri, possibly reaching minimal gale force during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream through late this morning before diminishing. Winds will once again increase Fri as high pressure builds N of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1034 mb, centered N of the area near 35N132W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas in the 9-11 ft range prevails over this area based on latest altimeter data. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours, then move NW to near 39N140W by Wed morning. The aerial coverage of the trades will gradually diminish Tue through Wed. NE-E swell generated by the recent gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo continues to propagate far from its source region and now reaches the waters S of 10N between 93W and 115W. Seas will continue to subside to less than 8 ft E of 110 over the next 24-36 hours. By tonight, seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will dominate most of the waters W of 110W in a mix of NE and NW swell. A new set of long period NW swell will reach the NW waters on Wed and spread SE reaching the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Thu. Expect seas of 8-11 ft over the northern waters with this swell event through Thu. $$ GR