000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232048 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N94W. The ITCZ continues from 03N94W to 02N110W to 05N126W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 107W and 113W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 121W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure has weakened N of the area, and the pressure gradient has loosened over the Tehuantepec region. Winds have diminished below gale force. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less by this evening. Large swell generated by the gap wind event is currently producing a large area of 8 ft or greater seas from 01N to 12N between 92W and 110W. This area of seas 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate westward, merging with an area of NW swell Mon. Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, possibly reaching storm force, is forecast to commence on Wed. Elsewhere high pressure prevails over the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds west of Baja California. A set of NW swell propagating across the waters of Baja California Norte will continue to spread southward. This will bring seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon afternoon. Seas will start to subside by the middle of the week. Gulf of California: By the middle of the week, high pressure will build across the Great Basin region of the United States, helping to strengthen winds over most of the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue through Mon morning before diminishing. Winds will once again strengthen Thu as high pressure builds N of the area. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream through Mon morning before diminishing. Winds will once again increase Fri as high pressure builds N of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. Satellite imagery shows a cluster of moderate to strong convection over southern Colombia and NE Ecuador. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1036 mb, centered N of the area near 33N134W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. Seas in the 9-13 ft range prevails over this area. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next few days, maintaining this area of fresh to strong trades. The high center will then start to drift NE and weaken by the middle of the week, helping to diminish the trades. NE-E swell generated by the recent gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate far from its source region into an area and reach the waters S of the equator and W of the Galapagos Islands by tonight. On Tue, seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will dominate most of the waters W of 110W in a mix of NE and NW swell. $$ AL