000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231535 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1306 UTC Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure in southern Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific continues to support minimal gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region. The high pressure N of the area continues to gradually weaken, loosening the pressure gradient across the region, and diminishing winds. By this afternoon, winds are forecast to diminish below gale force. Large swell generated by this gap wind event is currently producing a large area of 8 ft or greater seas from 02N to 13N between 90W and 108W. Winds will further diminish in the Tehunatepec area to 20 kt or less by tonight. Marine interests transiting the Tehuantepec region this weekend should be aware of hazardous marine conditions and take necessary actions to avoid the area of highest winds and seas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N94W. The ITCZ continues from 03N94W to 04N120W to 05N127W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 123W and 131W, and from 08N to 11N between 128W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Please see the Special Features section for details. Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, possibly reaching storm force, is forecast to commence on Wed night. Elsewhere, high pressure has built over the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula. This will support fresh to locally strong NW to N winds west of Baja California through Mon morning. A new set of NW swell over the waters of Baja California Norte will spread southward over the next couple of days. This will bring seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon afternoon. Gulf of California: Expect increasing winds across the Gulf of California and mainly S of 27N-28N beginning this evening due to the pressure gradient between the ridge west Baja California and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. By the middle of the week, a high pressure will build across the Great Basin region of the United States. This will also help to strengthen winds over most of the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell generated by the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through late today. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse during the overnight hours across the Papagayo region through Mon morning. Maximum seas will reach between 8-10 ft during the period of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 3N-4N through Mon morning. Maximum seas will build to 7-9 ft at times with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. Satellite imagery shows a cluster of moderate to strong convection over southern Colombia and NE Ecuador. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1032 mb, centered N of the area near 32N136W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. Seas in the 9-13 ft range prevails over this area. The high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next few days, maintaining this area of fresh to strong trades. The high center will then start to drift NE and weaken through the middle of the week. This will help diminish the trades by midweek. NE-E swell generated by the ongoing gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate far from its source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W and 110W by this afternoon, and reach the waters S of the equator and W of the Galapagos Islands by tonight. On Tue, seas less than 8 ft are expected across the forecast waters E of 110W while seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will dominate most of the waters W of 110W. $$ GR