000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure in southern Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific Ocean is supporting gale-force winds across the Tehuantepec region. The area of high pressure to the N of the area continues to weaken gradually, making the pressure gradient weaker across the region, and diminishing the wind speeds. The wind speeds are forecast to slow down, to less than gale-force, this morning, around 1200 UTC. Large swell, that is being generated by the gap wind event, will produce sea heights of 8 feet or greater, in a large area from 02N to 13N between 91W and 109W by Sunday morning. Marine interests transiting the Tehuantepec region during this weekend should be aware of hazardous marine conditions, and take necessary actions in order to avoid the area of highest winds and seas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N85W to 04N90W to 03N94W. The ITCZ continues from 03N94W to 02N102W to 04N118W beyond 04N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 10N between 126W and 131W. Widely scattered to isolated strong is elsewhere within 1000 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 123W westward. Isolated moderate is within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ from 97W westward, and from 07N to 08N between 105W and 107W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, until at least today, Sunday, at 1200 UTC. Please read the Special Features section for details. The next strong gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, possibly reaching storm force, is forecast to commence on Wednesday night, and last into Thursday afternoon. A weakening cold front is moving across the central Gulf of California. High pressure has developed behind the front, to the west of the Baja California peninsula. Expect fresh-to-strong NW winds from 19N to 28N from 116W eastward during the next few days. Expect fresh-to-strong NW winds in the Gulf of California from 23N to 30N, at times, during the next few days. High pressure will prevail to the west of the Baja peninsula through the middle of next week. This will support moderate to locally fresh winds west of Baja California. A new set of NW swell in the waters of Baja California Norte will spread southward during the next couple of days. This will bring seas of 8 feet or greater west of the Baja peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands by Monday afternoon. Gulf of California: Expect fresh-to-strong NW winds in the Gulf of California from 23N to 30N, at times, during the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell, generated by the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, will continue to propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse during the overnight hours across the Papagayo region through the weekend. The wind speeds will diminish early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. The maximum sea heights will reach between 8 feet and 10 feet during the period of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 3N-4N through the weekend, diminishing by early next week. The maximum sea heights will build to 7 feet to 9 feet at times with these winds. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 feet to 6 feet will prevail, elsewhere, into Tuesday. An unseasonably strong southerly jet stream is forecast to develop along the lee of the Andes in eastern Ecuador and SW Colombia late tonight. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center that is near 33N137W, past the Revillagigedo Islands, to 15N104W. The pressure gradient, between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 121W. Sea heights in the range of 8 feet to 12 feet prevail in this area. The area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary during the next few days, maintaining this area of fresh to strong trade winds. The high center will start to drift NE and weaken through the middle of next week. This will help to diminish the trade winds by midweek. NE-E swell, generated by the ongoing gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and in the Gulf of Papagayo, will propagate far from its source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W and 110W this weekend, gradually decaying by early next week. $$ mt