000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0240 UTC Sun Feb 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure in southern Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific is supporting gale force across the Tehuantepec region. The area of high pressure N of the area continues to gradually weaken, loosening the pressure gradient across the region, and diminishing winds. By Sun afternoon, winds are forecast to diminish below gale force. Large swell generated by this gap wind event will produce a large area of 8 ft or greater seas from 02N to 13N between 90W and 110W by Sun morning. Marine interests transiting the Tehuantepec region this weekend should be aware of hazardous marine conditions and take necessary actions to avoid the area of highest winds and seas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W to 03N108W to 05N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for details. Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, possibly reaching storm force, is forecast to commence on Wed night. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front is currently moving across the central Gulf of California. High pressure has built in the wake of the front west of the Baja California peninsula. This is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the northern Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate winds over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. High pressure will build slightly and prevail west of the Baja peninsula through the middle of next week. This will support moderate to locally fresh winds west of Baja California. A new set of NW swell over the waters of Baja California Norte will spread southward over the next couple of days. This will bring seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands by Mon afternoon. Gulf of California: High pressure will build across the Great Basin region of the United States by the middle of next week. This will help to strengthen winds over the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell generated by the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse during the overnight hours across the Papagayo region through the weekend. Winds will diminish early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. Maximum seas will reach between 8-10 ft during the period of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 3N-4N through the weekend, diminishing by early next week. Maximum seas will build to 7-9 ft at times with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. An unseasonably strong southerly jet is forecast to develop along the lee of the Andes over eastern Ecuador and SW Colombia late tonight. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from high pressure of 1030 mb, centered N of the area near 33N138W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 121W. Seas in the 8-12 ft range prevails over this area. The area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next few days, maintaining this area of fresh to strong trades. The high center will then start to drift NE and weaken through the middle of next week. This will help diminish the trades by midweek. NE-E swell generated by the ongoing gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will propagate far from its source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W and 110W this weekend, gradually decaying by early next week. $$ AL