000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1435 UTC Sat Feb 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure in southern Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific is supporting winds to 45 kt across the Tehuantepec region. Maximum seas are expected to be near 21 ft this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force on Sun. Large swell generated by this gap wind event will produce a large area of 8 ft or greater seas from 02N to 13N between 90W and 110W by Sun morning. Marine interests transiting the Tehuantepec region this weekend should be aware of hazardous marine conditions and take necessary actions to avoid the area of highest winds and seas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 03N93W. The ITCZ continues from 03N93W to 05N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 125W and 130W, and from 04.5N to 07N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for details. Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, possibly reaching storm force, is forecast to commence on Wed night. A weakening cold front currently moving across the northern offshore waters of Baja California is supporting light to gentle NW-N winds and 3-5 ft seas west of Baja California. Winds will become moderate to fresh west of Baja California on Sun as the pressure gradient tightens in the wake of the front. Seas are forecast to gradually build to 6-9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia late today through Sun. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Sun evening. This swell event will propagate across the remainder of the forecast waters W of Baja California through Mon evening with building seas of 8-11 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and seas of 8-9 ft all the way south to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gulf of California: Winds will briefly freshen ahead and behind the aforementioned cold front in the northern Gulf of California today. As a strong ridge builds across the forecast waters in the wake of the front, expect fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California S of 26N-27N late Sun into Mon. At the same time, winds could reach 20 to 25 kt near Cabo Corrientes. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell generated by the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun. Seas will reach up to 14-16 ft near 11N95W. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse during the overnight hours across the Papagayo region through the weekend. Winds will diminish early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. Maximum seas will reach between 8-10 ft during the period of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near 3N-4N through the weekend, diminishing by early next week. Maximum seas will build to 7-9 ft at times with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. In addition, an unseasonably strong southerly jet is forecast to develop along the lee of the Andes over eastern Ecuador and SW Colombia late tonight. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front is analyzed from 30N118W to 27N120W. Fresh N-NW winds and 8-9 ft seas in NW swell prevail behind the front. The front will continue to weaken as it shifts eastward toward Baja California Norte today. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 125W this weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 12 ft within the area of highest winds. Fresh NE-E swells generated by gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will propagate far from its source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W and 110W this weekend, gradually decaying by early next week. $$ GR