000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure in southern Mexico and the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific is supporting winds to 45 kt across the Tehuantepec region. Maximum seas are expected to be near 23 ft this morning. Winds will slowly diminish today, and continue to weaken through the weekend. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force on Sun. Large swell generated by the gap wind event will produce a large area of 8 ft or greater seas from 02N-12N between 90W and 110W by Sun morning. Marine interests transiting the Tehuantepec region this weekend should be aware of hazardous marine conditions and take necessary actions to avoid the area of highest winds and seas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 05N88W to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W to 03N100W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gale warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section for details. Looking ahead, the next strong gap wind event, possibly to storm force, is expected commence in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed night. A weak pressure pattern is supporting light to gentle NW-N winds and 3-5 ft seas west of Baja California. An approaching cold front will dissipate as it moves across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California later today. Winds become moderate to fresh west of Baja California on Sun as the gradient tightens in the wake of the front. Winds could reach 25 kt near Cabo Corrientes by Sun and Mon. Seas are forecast to gradually build to 6-9 ft in NW swell this weekend. Winds will briefly freshen ahead and behind the front in the northern Gulf of California today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell generated by the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun. Seas will reach up to 14-16 ft near 11N95W. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse during the overnight hours across the Papagayo region through the weekend. Winds will diminish early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. Maximum seas will reach between 8-10 ft during the period of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through the weekend, diminishing by early next week. Maximum seas will build to 6-8 ft at times with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into Tue. In addition, an unseasonably strong southerly jet is forecast to develop along the lee of the Andes over eastern Ecuador and SW Colombia late tonight. Environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front is analyzed from 30N120W to 23N127W. Fresh N-NW winds and 8-9 ft seas in NW swell prevail behind the front. The front will continue to weaken as it shifts eastward toward Baja California Norte today. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 125W this weekend. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 12 ft within the area of highest winds. Fresh NE-E swells generated by gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will propagate far from its source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W and 110W this weekend, gradually decaying by early next week. $$ Mundell