000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the SW Gulf of Mexico will induce gale force winds through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning. Winds are forecast to increase to minimal storm force this evening, and continue into the early morning hours of Sat. Winds will gradually diminish below gale force by Sun afternoon. Very large seas will build with these winds, reaching near 22-24 ft by early Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N97W to 03N106W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 03N106W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 92W and 99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the developing storm warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad weak ridge extends SE across the offshore waters, with light to gentle NW-N winds. Altimeter data shows mainly 4-6 ft seas, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. The ridge will weaken during the next few days, in advance of an approaching cold front. The front will slowly dissipate as it moves across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California through Sat. Winds will become moderate to locally fresh as the gradient tightens in the wake of the front. Winds could reach 25 kt offshore of Cabo Corrientes by the end of the weekend into early next week. Seas are forecast to gradually build to 6-9 ft in NW swell behind the front this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell generated by a storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through Sun. Seas will reach up to 14-16 ft near 11N96W. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse, strongest during the overnight and early morning hours, through the weekend. Winds will diminish early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. Maximum seas will reach between 8-11 ft during this time period. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong north winds will pulse through the weekend, diminishing some early next week. Maximum seas will build to 6-8 ft at times with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail into early next week. Looking ahead, an unseasonably strong southerly jet is forecast to develop along the lee of the Andes over eastern Ecuador and SW Colombia late Sat night. During this time, environmental conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding to develop due to strong topographical forcing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is analyzed from 30N126W to 25N133W, with fresh northerly winds and NW swell behind the front. Altimeter data shows seas of 8-9 ft. The front will gradually weaken as it shifts E-SE across the northern waters through the end of the week, while the associated NW swell gradually decays as well. Fresh NE-E swells generated by gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo will propagate far from its source region into an area from the equator to 13N between 90W and 115W this weekend, gradually decaying by early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are noted west of 120W north of the ITCZ, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Trade winds are expected to strengthen and expand in size through early next week as high pres builds north of the area in the wake of the above mentioned cold front. $$ Mundell