000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200949
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
.Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front entering the NW
Gulf of Mexico tonight will move through the western Gulf on 
Thu, and through southern Mexico Thu night. This will bring winds
to gale force abruptly across Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night,
and continue to strengthen on Fri. Winds may reach near storm 
force Fri night, with seas building to around 20 ft. Gale force
winds will then diminish gradually Sat through Sat night and are
expected to fall below gale force late Sun morning. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N74.5W TO 03N78.5W TO 06N89W TO
04N103W. ITCZ extends from 04N103W TO 06.5N123W TO beyond 05.5N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N TO 06.5N 
between 84W AND 99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 90 nm S and 150 nm N OF the ITCZ between 105W 
and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northerly gap winds are blowing across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight and extend downstream to near 13N95W, where
seas have built to 9 ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
after sunrise, with northerly winds to near 25 kt continuing
across the immediate coastal area of the Gulf through sunset.
Winds will then very quickly increase to gale force Thu night. 
Please see above for more information on the Gale Warning for 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad and weak high pressure ridge extends Se into the offshore
waters of Baja California tonight to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands, ahead of a weak cold front sweeping into the far NW
waters of the discussion area. Recent scatterometer and ship 
observations indicate moderate NW winds over the offshore waters 
of Baja California, and gentle NW winds across the Gulf of 
California. Latest altimeter data indicate 3 to 5 ft seas in 
open waters, and up to 3 ft in the southern Gulf of California. 
Gentle to moderate winds persist in Mexican offshore waters south
of 20N with 3 to 5 ft seas.

The ridge will weaken over the next few days ahead of the
approaching cold front. The front will move through Baja 
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by late 
Fri/early Sat to produce moderate S to SW winds across the
northern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, winds will increase
over the weekend as high pressure builds across of the area in 
the wake of the front. Seas to 8 ft will reach Guadalupe Island 
and the waters off Baja California Norte by late Sun. Elsewhere S
of Jalisco, generally gentle winds will prevail.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the 
Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to around 30 kt each
night through the weekend. These winds will prevail as far N as 
the Gulf of Fonseca, with seas up to 9 ft. In the Gulf of Panama
and south to the equator, fresh N winds will pulse to strong 
each night into the weekend. Light winds will prevail elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An upper level low has developed near 00N110W. This feature is 
enhancing convection across the tropics from 02.5N TO 06.5N 
between 84W AND 99W. This activity is expected to increase in
coverage through this morning before shifting slightly E and
diminishing Thu afternoon. 

Farther west, weak high pressure north of 30N and just east of
cold front moving into the NW corner of the area is supporting 
gentle to moderate NE winds north of 20N and moderate to 
fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Seas are 7 to 
9 ft from 10N to 20N west of 120W in a mix of trade wind waves 
and longer period northerly swell. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

The cold front extends from 30N138W to 29N140W and will move 
eastward across the waters north of 20N through Sat. Moderate to
fresh northerly flow will follow the front north of 20N west of 
125W Thu and Fri, with 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong 
trades farther south west of 120W Fri through Sun with seas 
building 8 to 12 ft. Farther east, seas up to 9 ft associated 
with NE to E swell from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind 
areas will push westward across the tropical waters mainly south
of 10N toward 110W Fri through the weekend. 

$$
Stripling