000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1536 UTC Wed Feb 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through the western Gulf of Mexico Thu, and through southern Mexico Thu night. This will bring winds to gale force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Fri. Winds may reach near storm force, with seas building to 18 ft downstream by late Fri. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W TO 00N81W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 03.5N90W to 03N117W. and from 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 05N between 96W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N to 07N between 115W and 118W, and from 07N to 10N between 120W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more information on the gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad and weak high pressure ridge extends from 35N163W east to southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer and ship observations indicate moderate NW winds over the offshore waters of Baja California, and gentle NW winds across the Gulf of California. Concurrent altimeter data indicate 4 to 6 ft seas in open waters and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds persist in Mexican offshore waters south of 20N with 3 to 5 ft seas. Mid to upper level cloudiness is evident across the central Baja California peninsula and Gulf of California. The ridge will weaken a bit over the next two to three days ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will move through Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California late Fri and early Sat. Looking ahead, winds will increase as high pressure builds west of the area in the wake of the front. Seas to 8 ft will reach Guadalupe Island and the waters off Baja California Norte by late Sun. Elsewhere S of Jalisco, generally gentle winds will prevail. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to around 30 kt each night through Sun. These offshore winds will prevail as far N as the Gulf of Fonseca, with seas ranging between 8 to 9 ft. In the Gulf of Panama and south to the equator, fresh N winds will pulse to strong each night into the weekend. Light winds will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Divergence aloft on the southeast side of upper trough reaching from near the Revillagigedo Islands to 05N100W is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 03N to 05N between 96W and 99W. Showers and a few thunderstorms are also noted on the periphery of this upper feature from 04N to 07N between 115W and 118W, and from 07N to 10N between 120W and 125W. Farther west, weak high pressure north of 20N is supporting gentle winds north of 20N and moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Seas are 8 to 9 ft from 10N to 20N west of 130W in a mix of trade wind waves and longer period northerly swell. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. A weak cold front approaching the area from the west will move across the waters north of 20N through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly flow will follow the front north of 20N west of 125W Thu and Fri with 8 to 9 ft NW swell. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trades farther south west of 120W Fri through Sun with seas building 8 to 12 ft. Farther east, seas of 8 to 9 ft associated with NE to E swell from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas will push westward across the waters mainly south of 10N toward 110W Fri through Sun. $$ Christensen