000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W TO 04N77.5W TO 04.5N91W. The ITCZ begins near 04.5N91W and continues to 06N114W TO 05N128W TO 07.5N135W TO beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04.5N TO 08.5N between 110W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05.5N TO 08.5N between 129W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure ridge extends SE from the NE Pacific to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. A weak pressure gradient over the region will support gentle to moderate NW winds along the Gulf of California and the Baja California offshore waters through early Sat. Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific will then begin to build SE across the regional waters to produce fresh NNW winds and building seas in NW swell through the weekend. Gentle to moderate northerly winds can be expected throughout the week across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California to Las Tres Marias, while winds across the northern Gulf remain variable at 10 kt or less through Thu. Light to moderate variable winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec region through early Wed morning before increasing northerly flow returns to the area. Strong northerly winds are expected to dominate the Tehuantepec area Wed and Thu and peak around 30 kt each night before increasing to gale force Fri morning ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. This front will initiate another significant gale wind event across Tehuantepec Fri through Sun morning before quickly diminishing. Otherwise, gentle winds will generally prevail from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong offshore NE to E gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region throughout the week, pulsing to around 30 kt most nights. This strong offshore flow will extent beyond 90W through most of the week, and as far north as offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca. Downstream seas are expected to remain 7-9 ft and peaking near 10 ft most mornings. Fresh to strong N winds will also persist in and S of the Gulf of Panama to near 05N through Wed before weakening slightly through the remainder of the week. Seas of 6-7 ft reaching occasionally 8 ft will prevail south of the Gulf through Wed. Light and variable winds will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A middle-level low lingering across the western waters near 20N134W continues to support broad surface troughing along about 130W south of 15N, as well as active weather to the east of this surface trough. Strong NE to E winds across this region in recent days have diminished to near 20 kt, except for a small areas of winds to near 25 kt near 125W. Mixed NE and NW swell are currently producing seas of 8-10 ft with peak seas to 11 ft from 05N to 25N W of 123W. The trough will shift W of the area by Wed with seas subsiding to 7-9 ft. A weakening cold front will move into the NW forecast waters Wed, then dissipate by Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will follow the front with seas building to 13 ft N of 28N between 122W and 129W Fri night. The ridge building behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient across the tradewind zone from 10N to 24N W of 120W over the weekend. Expect fresh to strong tradewinds and seas building 9-12 ft over this region during that period. $$ Stripling