000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2130 UTC Mon Feb 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 01N80W to 02N87W. The 
ITCZ begins near 04N91W then continues along 05N110W to 
06N125W, then resumes near 07N134W and continues to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 102W 
and 113W, and from 06N to 17N between 117W and 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends SE from the NE Pacific to just W of
the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak pressure gradient over the
region support NW gentle winds as shown by latest scatterometer
data while the latest altimeter passes depict seas in the 4-7 ft
range. Fluctuations in the pressure gradient between the ridge
and a surface trough over the Gulf of California will support
gentle to moderate NW winds across the gulf itself as well as the
Baja California offshore waters through Sat. 

Fresh N winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish to moderate
tonight. Strong N gap winds will resume Wed morning and persist 
through Sun. Gale force winds are expected by Fri morning as a
strong ridge builds in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold
front. Gale conditions will prevail through Sat evening. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong to near gale force NE to E winds, highest overnights, will
continue over and downwind of the Papagayo region through the
week, with fresh offshore winds extending N to the Gulf of
Fonseca. These winds are generating seas of 8 to 11 ft, which
will also continue through the week. Fresh to strong N winds will
also occur in and S of the Gulf of Panama through the week, with
seas ranging from 7 to 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A middle-level low will continue to support a surface trough
moving westward over the tropical waters W of 125W. Strong NE 
to E winds will prevail in the vicinity of the trough through Tue
before decreasing. Latest altimeter passes indicate that these 
winds combined with mixed swell have produced seas of 8 to 13 ft.
Seas will remain from 7 to 11 ft for much of the week due to 
general easterly trade winds and N swell propagating into the 
region.

A weakening cold front will move into the NW forecast waters Wed,
then dissipate by Thu. The front will bring fresh to locally
strong NW winds N of 15N and W of 130W along with NW swell that
will increase seas of 8 to 11 ft into late week.

$$
Ramos