000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171433
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1411 UTC Mon Feb 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N76W to 03N83W. The ITCZ begins
near 05N89W then continues to 05N108W to 09N129W. It then extends
from 07N134W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 07N between 102W and 110W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 07N to 18N between 124W and
131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends SE from the NE Pacific to just SE
of the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is weakening, as is a
low pressure trough in the Gulf of California, thus the pressure
gradient between the two has relaxed and winds have diminished.
Winds should be gentle to moderate on both sides of Baja
California through the week.

Strong gap winds across the Tehuantepec region should diminish to
fresh later today, then decrease further Tue. Strong N gap winds
will resume early Wed morning and persist through the remainder
of the week. Gale force winds are expected by Fri morning ahead
of a strong cold front that will move through the Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere offshore Mexico, light to gentle winds will prevail
this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong to near gale force NE to E winds, highest overnights, will
continue over and downwind of the Papagayo region through the
week, with fresh offshore winds extending N to the Gulf of
Fonseca. These winds are generating seas of 8 to 11 ft, which
will also continue through the week. Fresh to strong N winds will
also occur in and S of the Gulf of Panama through the week, with
seas in the area ranging from 7 to 9 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Upper level low pressure and the associated surface trough near
15N135W will move little, and gradually weaken early this week. 
Strong NE to E winds to the W of the trough, evidenced in an 
early morning scatterometer pass, will prevail into Tue before 
decreasing somewhat. The latest altimeter passes in the area 
indicated that these winds combined with mixed swell has produced
seas of 10 to 16 ft N of 05N and W of 130W. Seas will fall below
12 ft by this evening, but remain from 7 to 11 ft for much of the
week due to general easterly trade winds and N swell propagating
into the region.

A weakening cold front will move into the NW forecast waters Wed,
then dissipate by Thu. The front will bring fresh to locally
strong NW winds N of 15N and W of 130W along with NW swell that
will increase seas of 8 to 11 ft into late week.

$$
KONARIK