000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N74.5W TO 01N80W TO 02N82W. The ITCZ begins near 05N88W TO 05N106W TO 08.5N129W TO beyond 06.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N TO 07N between 102W and 110W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 20N between 125W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered over the NE Pacific well offshore of California extends a ridge SE to just north of the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. A modest pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the NW coast of Mexico supports moderate N to NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh NNW winds prevail across the central and southern Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes, and will persist through Mon morning. Winds will then diminish slightly across the offshore waters and Gulf of California through Thu as the ridge weakens. Strong gap winds across the Tehuantepec region continue to gradually diminish, and were depicted by recent ASCAT data as a very narrow plume of N winds at 20-25 kt extending only 60 nm offshore. Little change is expected through Tue morning before winds become light and variable through Tue evening. Strong northerly gap winds are expected to resume across Tehuantepec early Wed morning and persist through Thu evening. The next significant gale force wind event there is expected Fri ahead of a strong cold front moving across the western Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will continue over the remaining Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will continue over and well downstream of the Papagayo region through Fri, with fresh to strong offshore winds extending northward to offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca. This large area of strong winds will generate seas to 8 to 10 ft downstream of Papagayo during the week. ENE swell generated by this gap wind event will combine with swell propagating S from the Tehuantepec region, and merge to create high seas across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon evening. Fresh to strong N winds occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extending S to around 03N will also change little through Fri. Wave heights south of the Gulf of Panama will remain between 6 and 8 ft during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A vigorous mid to upper-level low across the far western waters near 20N137W continues to support surface troughing across the tropics along about 130W tonight. The strong surface ridge centered NNW of the surface trough is promoting a strong pressure gradient and strong NE to E winds from 08N to 16N between 125W and 137W based on overnight ASCAT data. Recent altimeter data over that region show seas in the 9 to 16 ft range. The upper level low is also supporting scattered showers and tstms from 08N TO 20N between 125W and 133W. The upper low will weaken by Tue and begin to shift eastward and out of the area, with showers and thunderstorms then decreasing and shifting south to along the ITCZ. Winds will gradually diminish today through tonight as the surface trough weakens and shifts westward. Seas across this region, to the west of 125W, will not subside below 8-10 ft until Tue morning, and then continue to slowly subside through Wed evening. A weak cold front will enter the NW forecast waters by Wed afternoon. Seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell will follow the front and affect the forecast waters N of 05N W of 125W through Fri. $$ Stripling